Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Horseshoe Indianapolis Pick 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Oct. 15 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to play in carryovers at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Presque Isle Downs.

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• 10x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers, excluding show bets, at your most wagered track each Tuesday in October.
• 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll ($40) during the duration of the $80 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge on Tuesday to receive 25% cash back (maximum $10).

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#2 Evening Edge (8-5) has put together a decent work tab for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. The half-sister to three-time stakes-winning sprinter Closing Act has posted a trio of bullet workouts at Ellis Park, including half a mile from the starting gate in :48 1/5 and five furlongs in 1:01 3/5.

Evening Edge is a daughter of juvenile Grade 1 winner Competitive Edge, who sires a lofty 15% winners from first-time starters. Hot apprentice jockey Erik Asmussen (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) has the mount, so the stage is set for Evening Edge to deliver a winning debut.

We’ll single Evening Edge to start a double and a Pick 3.

Selections

• #2 Evening Edge (8-5)
• #3 Cottage Garden (5-2)
• #4 Toodles (12-1)

Wagers

• $10 Double: 2 with 5,9 ($20)
• $2.50 Pick 3: 2 with 5,9 with 1,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $30,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

Two contenders loom as logical win threats in this grass contest for Indiana-bred fillies and mares.

#9 Louder Than Words (5-2) hasn’t missed the trifecta in seven turf starts, including a 2 1/2-length score in the 1 1/16-mile Peony H. against Indiana-breds last year.

#5 Spotty Showers (7-2) has run well in a couple of recent grass starts against non-state-restricted competition, and during the spring she smashed a turf allowance for Indiana-breds at Horseshoe Indianapolis by nine lengths.

Let’s use Louder Than Words and Spotty Showers in our double and Pick 3 wagers.

Selections

• #9 Louder Than Words (5-2)
• #5 Spotty Showers (7-2)
• #8 Single Her (4-1)

Wagers

• $5 Double: 5,9 with 1,3 ($20)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:43 p.m. ET)

Two horses offer appeal in this maiden dash for Indiana-bred juveniles.

#3 Dont Compress (5-2) has earned strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 67 and 64 while finishing second in her first two starts against non-state-restricted maiden special weight competition at Mountaineer. Both of those numbers exceed the par winning number (61) for Tuesday’s conditions.

But Dont Compress could face a challenge from the first-time starter #1 Liz’s Legacy (9-5), who clocked a bullet half-mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :47 4/5 earlier this month. Trainer Robert Gorham wins at a 12% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

We’ll use these two to conclude our double and Pick 3 wagers, then box them in a small exacta.

Selections

• #1 Liz’s Legacy (9-5)
• #3 Dont Compress (5-2)
• #4 City Prayers (6-1)

Wagers

• $5 Exacta: box 1,3 ($10)

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,067 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs features a $1,067 carryover for Tuesday's card.

Some bettors may opt to single morning-line favorite #6 Bassanio (8-5) in race 6, a $25,000 claimer taking place over one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta. After all, his last three Brisnet Speed ratings are 84, 82, and 83, whereas none of his six rivals have earned a number higher than 79 in their last three starts apiece.

But there’s a problem: Bassanio has never run over a synthetic track (he’s competed exclusively on turf so far), and he isn’t guaranteed to run an 80+ Brisnet Speed rating while switching surfaces. Can he win? Certainly. But we can’t recommend singling him.

For backup, use #4 Uncle Kenny (3-1) and #5 Internal Capital (9-2). Uncle Kenny has made two starts over this course, distance, and class level since August, winning one and finishing second in the other. His victory, which came four starts ago, yielded an 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

Meanwhile, Internal Capital exits a third-place finish in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Presque Isle Downs. On that occasion, he finished half a length in front of Uncle Kenny.

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: $5,550 Super High 5 carryover (4:45 p.m. ET)

Want to win a share of the $5,550 carryover up for grabs in Tuesday’s 10-cent “Grand High 5” Super High 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis? Then you’ll have to decipher race 6, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf.

A large field has entered, but we recommend keying #4 Jam’s Paper Moon (6-1) on top of your tickets. The three-year-old daughter of Oscar Performance has only run once, finishing fourth by 5 1/2 lengths in a Dec. 31 maiden special weight racing about 1 1/16 miles over the Fair Grounds turf course. In that race, Jam’s Paper Moon rated well off the pace, rallied into second place, and flattened out in the final furlong.

It turns out Jam’s Paper Moon was facing a tough field. The top three finishers all returned to win their next starts. Even while finishing fourth, Jam’s Paper Moon earned a sharp 81 Brisnet Speed rating that ranks among the highest numbers in Tuesday’s field.

The long layoff is a question mark that may scare some bettors away, but take note, trainer Brendan Walsh (a 30% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet) wins at an excellent 19% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. If Jam’s Paper Moon brings her A game off the layoff, she can become yet another next-out winner from that deep Dec. 31 maiden race.

Good luck!