Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Maidens at Indianapolis

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, May 14 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $2,505 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers every Tuesday in April and May.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:41 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #8 Hail Yeah (8-1) has a chance to outrun his odds for trainer Tim Eggleston, who wins at a solid 18% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights. A son of Coal Front (who sires 14% winners from first-time starters), Hail Yeah showed speed when breezing a swift half-mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :48.

At 8-1, we’ll take a shot betting Hail Yeah to win.

Selections

• #8 Hail Yeah (8-1)
• #7 Secret Rendezvous (9-5)
• #6 Dreaming Bro (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Hail Yeah

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 4:14 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Wesley Ward has compiled a terrific 4-for-7 (57%) record debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Ward has entered a pair of unraced youngsters in this maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies: #1 Dangherecomesshang (9-5) and #8 Larrupin (7-2). Both are viable win threats, but we’ll side with Larrupin, who offers a bigger price on the morning line.

Larrupin has turned in a sharp series of three-furlong workouts at Keeneland and is slated to be ridden by Walter Rodriguez, who has gone 4-for-8 (50%) teaming up with Ward over the last two months. It’s worth noting Larrupin is a daughter of Earthlight, a multiple Group 1-winning juvenile who is off to a hot start at stud.

A win bet is in order, and we’ll also play Larrupin over her stablemate in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #8 Larrupin (7-2)
• #1 Dangherecomesshang (9-5)
• #9 La Marinera (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Larrupin
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 1
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 4:45 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has gone 8-for-21 (38%) debuting three-year-olds in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Seven others finished in the top three, giving Cox a 71% in-the-money rate.

These stats bode well for Cox’s unraced filly #7 Forever Safe (9-2), a three-year-old daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro, who sires a lofty 17% winners from first-time starters. Forever Safe has put together a solid work tab highlighted by a couple of sub-:48 half-miles at Keeneland, so at 9-2 this $400,000 yearling acquisition is well worth betting to win.

Selections

• #7 Forever Safe (9-2)
• #2 Aaralyn (8-1)
• #3 Don’t Look Back (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #7 Forever Safe

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $2,505 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Pick 6 on Monday at Finger Lakes, triggering a non-jackpot $2,505 carryover into Tuesday’s card.

Assembling a winning ticket doesn’t appear too difficult, at least on paper. The six races have drawn 43 horses, averaging about 7.2 per race. That works out to 125,440 possible outcomes, which isn’t an unmanageable number for a Pick 6.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Check out Race 8, the final leg of the six-race sequence. It’s a $5,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races, and the six-furlong dirt sprint looks ripe for conquest by morning line favorite #8 East Coast Girl (9-5).

East Coast Girl spent her first eight starts competing against tougher competition at Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Saratoga, and Monmouth Park. She showed enough talent to finish a pacesetting third against New York-breds in a 6 1/2-furlong New York Stallion Series S. in April 2023, and when last seen in August, she finished third in a $30,000 claimer after engaging in a four-way duel for the early lead.

East Coast Girl regularly sets the pace or duels for the lead, which could lend her an advantage on Monday since there isn’t a crazy amount of speed in Race 8. Check out East Coast Girl’s Brisnet E2 Pace ratings—her last six numbers are 103, 100, 100, 110, 108, and 91, whereas her Race 8 rivals rarely post numbers higher than 70s and 80s.

East Coast Girl boasts an advantage on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as well. On four occasions, she’s earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 81 or higher, whereas none of her Finger Lakes rivals have ever earned a number higher than 81. Dropping in class for a $5,000 claimer should make East Coast Girl tough to beat in her first start for trainer Jeremiah Englehart, who wins at a lofty 26% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. The presence of jockey Andre Worrie (a 21% winner at Finger Lakes this meet) cements East Coast Girl as a viable Pick 6 single.

Good luck!