Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mechanic Susie can win Distaff Stakes

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Aug. 20, at Finger Lakes, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Assiniboia Downs, including a horse to single in the $934 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 1: maiden special weight (one mile on dirt, 1 p.m. ET)

#1 Miss City Girl (9-5) has finished eighth, second, and sixth in her first three starts against New York-bred maiden special weight competition on turf. Those three contests took place at Aqueduct and Saratoga.

Switching to dirt at Finger Lakes can send Miss City Girl to the winner’s circle, even while tackling a non-state-restricted maiden special weight. Trainer Christophe Clement has compiled a stellar 10-for-15 (67%) record at Finger Lakes since 2021, which includes a 3-for-3 tally this meet.

#4 Going Home Now (3-1), runner-up over this track, distance, and class level on Aug. 6, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Miss City Girl (9-5)
• #4 Going Home Now (3-1)
• #2 Turnupthemusic (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 4

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: maiden special weight (one mile on dirt, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#7 Winter Creek (7-2) has put together a decent work tab at Churchill Downs for trainer Philip Bauer, who wins at a 22% rate with first-time starters. As a son of Cigar Mile H. (G1) winner Connect out of Pike Creek, the dam of 1 1/16-mile Charles Taylor Derby runner-up Colonial Pike, Winter Creek has the potential to shine while debuting over one mile.

Let’s try a win bet on Winter Creek.

Selections

• #7 Winter Creek (7-2)
• #6 Baytown Beatle (5-1)
• #4 Track Ranger (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Winter Creek

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Distaff S. (one mile on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Mechanic Susie (8-5) has gone 4-for-4 at Assiniboia Downs this year while posting consistent Brisnet Speed ratings in the 76-79 range. She overcame a slow pace to win a 7 1/2-furlong allowance on Aug. 6 and looks talented enough to spring a mild surprise over defending Distaff winner #3 Melisandre (1-1), who enters in subpar form.

#1 Catch the Dream (5-1), runner-up in the Aug. 6 allowance, has a shot to round out the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Mechanic Susie (8-5)
• #1 Catch the Dream (5-1)
• #3 Melisandre (1-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 1

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $934 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

The $1 Pick 6 at Finger Lakes went unsolved Monday, even though none of the results were especially shocking. As a result, Tuesday’s card is highlighted by a $934 Pick 6 carryover.

The six-race sequence is a bit complex, with 49 horses (averaging nearly 8.2 per race) and 279,936 possible outcomes before scratches. Five of the six races have drawn eight or more horses.

If you’re scouring the entries in search of a single to build tickets around, let us help you out with a recommendation. #8 Dorothys Happiness (2-1) may be light on experience, but he appears to have talent to spare and looms as the horse to beat in race 5, a 5 1/2-furlong dirt allowance for horses who have never won two races.

A three-year-old gelded son of champion sprinter Runhappy, Dorothys Happiness debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight on July 22 at Finger Lakes. The result? A blowout victory. Despite breaking a bit slowly, Dorothys Happiness secured the early lead and carved out the pace before powering clear in the final quarter-mile to dominate by 9 3/4 lengths.

That lofty margin of victory carried Dorothys Happiness to an 85 Brisnet Speed rating, higher than the par winning number (83) for Tuesday’s conditions at Finger Lakes. It’s also higher than the numbers his Tuesday rivals have been posting. 

Dorothys Happiness is facing seven challengers, and only two of them have ever posted a number higher than 83. Those two are #1 G Munning (12-1) and #3 Pop Coyer (5-1); they’ve respectively earned Speed ratings as high as 94 and 93, but neither has posted a number higher than 84 in their last 10 starts apiece.

In other words, if Dorothys Happiness repeats or improves upon his debut, he’ll be mighty tough to beat for hot trainer Anthony Ferraro, a 28% winner at Finger Lakes this meet. The presence of jockey Luis Perez (a 19% winner at Finger Lakes this meet) adds to the appeal. For all these reasons, we view Dorothys Happiness as a trustworthy Pick 6 single.

Good luck!