Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Play these 8-1 shots

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Nov. 12 at Mahoning Valley and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a ticket for the $5,306 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers at your most wagered track each Tuesday in November.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 1:12 p.m. ET)

This allowance for Ohio-bred juveniles who have never won two races could be ripe for conquest by #2 Ol’ Nelson (4-1), the only entrant who has competed outside of the Ohio-bred ranks. Five starts against non-state-restricted competition at Presque Isle Downs have yielded a third-place finish in a maiden special weight and a 3 1/4-length victory in a $20,000 maiden claimer.

Ol’ Nelson may find Ohio-bred company easier to handle, so we’ll take a shot betting this speedy gelding to win.

Selections

• #2 Ol’ Nelson (4-1)
• #3 Trouble in Motown (2-1)
• #6 Kozy K (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Ol’ Nelson

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:41 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #6 Goingscents (8-1), a son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents, has put together a decent work tab highlighted by a quick three furlongs from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :35 1/5.

Trainer Anthony Cunningham wins at a 25% rate with first-time starters, so at 8-1 Goingscents is worth betting over heavy favorite #1 Machts Nichts (3-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Goingscents (8-1)
• #1 Machts Nichts (3-5)
• #3 Gus and Woodrow (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 1

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:43 p.m. ET)

#5 Truth Bomb (5-2) nearly won his debut over this track, distance, and class level on Oct. 1, finishing second by a nose.

Since trainer Brad Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters, and at a 30% rate with horses running long for the second time, the stats suggest Truth Bomb has a strong chance to prevail on Tuesday. Let’s bet him over Kentucky shippers #3 Reb (5-1) and #1 Arthur Jr (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Truth Bomb (5-2)
• #3 Reb (5-1)
• #1 Arthur Jr (6-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $5,306 Pick 6 carryover (1:16 p.m. ET)

Looking for horses to play in Tuesday’s $5,306 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes? We’ve got you covered with a suggested single and a live longshot:

Best single: Race 6, #6 Change Nurse (9-5)

Change Nurse rarely turns in a bad effort running long over the Finger Lakes main track. During the summer of 2023, she cracked the trifecta in back-to-back $10,000 allowance optional claimers while earning matching 80 Brisnet Speed ratings.

After taking nearly 14 months off, Charge Nurse faltered to fifth place in a Finger Lakes sprint. But she bounced back impressively in her second start of 2024. Stretching out for a one-mile and 70-yard $11,000 claimer did the trick as Charge Nurse tracked the pace before rallying to win by a head, earning a 76 Brisnet Speed rating.

Now Charge Nurse is dropping in class for a $5,000 claimer over the same distance. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is only 70, so Charge Nurse regularly runs fast enough to win a race like this. Throw in the fact trainer Jeremiah Englehart strikes at a 25% rate with horses running for the third time following a layoff, and Charge Nurse is a compelling Pick 6 single.

Live longshot: Race 8, #3 Artemis Girl (8-1)

It’s been a while since Artemis Girl last produced a competitive showing; she’s finished off the board in six straight starts. But most of those were on turf, and all came against tough competition on the New York Racing Association circuit. This fall, she’s finished eighth and 11th in a couple of $40,000 claimers racing 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct.

Now Artemis Girl is plunging in class for an $11,000 claimer. She’s also switching from turf to dirt and cutting back to six furlongs, the shortest distance she’s ever run. In her lone sprint to date—which also marked her only start on dirt—Artemis Girl finished sixth by 6 1/4 lengths in a seven-furlong division of the New York Stallion Series S. at Aqueduct.

Artemis Girl owns some of the best Brisnet Speed ratings in this field, and all the changes she’s making may send the three-year-old filly to the winner’s circle for trainer Kathleen Mastin, who has compiled a respectable 3-for-17 (18%) record at Finger Lakes this meet. Artemis Girl is absolutely worth including on Pick 6 tickets.

Good luck!