Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presque Isle Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, May 28 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Finger Lakes, and Presque Isle Downs, including horses to play in Presque Isle’s $326 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers every Tuesday in April and May.
• Assiniboia Downs 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to 25% per day) on winning single-horse win bets every Monday and Tuesday at Assiniboia Downs from May 20-28.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#3 Say Yes Anni (8-1) hasn’t put together the flashiest work tab, but trainer Caio Caramori wins at a 25% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers and has gone 1-for-1 debuting three-year-olds in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2019.

These stats suggest Say Yes Anni may be capable of outrunning her odds under apprentice jockey Irving Moncada, who rides with a 10-pound weight allowance. Let’s bet Say Yes Anni to win, then use her for second place in a saver exacta with fellow first-time starters #6 Wild Rumors (5-2) and #7 Keen Annie (9-5) on top.

Selections

• #3 Say Yes Anni (8-1)
• #6 Wild Rumors (5-2)
• #7 Keen Annie (9-5)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #3 Say Yes Anni
• $5 Exacta: 6,7 with 3 ($10)
  Total: $25

Finger Lakes: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:42 p.m. ET)

#2 She She’s Shadow (5-2) has finished third in all three of her starts, including the six-furlong Shesastonecoldfox S. at Finger Lakes last year. She recently returned from a six-month layoff to finish third by 3 3/4 lengths in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Finger Lakes, a race in which she broke a little slowly.

Trainer Jeffrey Englehart wins at a lofty 22% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, so She She’s Shadow is eligible to move forward while stretching out over 5 1/2 furlongs in her second run of the season. We’ll place a win bet on She She’s Shadow, the play her over #1 Miss Wobbles (9-5) and #6 Dharma (4-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #2 She She’s Shadow (5-2)
• #1 Miss Wobbles (9-5)
• #6 Dharma (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 She She’s Shadow
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 6: $6,250 Claiming (one mile, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#8 Protectthewitness (9-5) looks tough to beat in her 2024 debut. She threw down six straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 74-79 range running long at Presque Isle last year, and two starts back she won an $8,500 claimer by 1 1/4 lengths.

Protectthewitness owns the best recent Speed ratings in this $6,250 claimer, so dropping down the class ladder ought to lead for victory. It helps that she’s trained by Eduardo Rojas, a 32% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Throw in the fact Protectthewitness will be guided by hot apprentice jockey Martina Rojas, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance, and Protectthewitness is worthy of a large win bet.

Selections

• #8 Protectthewitness (9-5)
• #1 Anippe (9-2)
• #7 Tiz Promising Rvf (9-2)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #8 Protectthewitness

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $326 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

When Spirited Sol won Monday’s sixth race at Presque Isle Downs as the 26-1 longest shot in the field, it set the stage for the 50-cent Late Pick 5 to go unsolved. Sure enough, no bettor held a winning ticket, triggering a $326 carryover in Tuesday’s Late Pick 5.

It looks like an average Pick 5 sequence as far as difficulty goes. The five races have drawn 42 horses (averaging 8.4 per race), so there are 38,880 possible outcomes to analyze.

We’ve already made our case for #8 Protectthewitness (9-5) as the horse to beat in Race 4, and we see no reason to back away from that opinion when playing the Pick 5. Some bettors might throw in an extra horse or two as backup, but we recommend standing alone with Protectthewitness as a single.

That slices the number of possibilities to analyze down to 4,860, and we can simplify matters even further with a narrow set of selections in Race 4, a $10,000 starter optional claimer for horses who have started for a claiming price of $5,000 or less in 2023-24.

The one-mile contest features a heavy favorite in the form of #2 Pemaquid Pete (7-5), whose 11-for-29 lifetime record at Presque Isle includes a 5-for-9 tally in 2023. He wrapped up last season with a gate-to-wire victory in a $15,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles.

Pemaquid Pete ran a bit below form in his first start of 2024, finishing fifth in a $15,000 starter optional claimer racing one mile at Presque Isle, but he didn’t get off to the best start and made a nice mid-race move to challenge before tiring. There isn’t much speed in Tuesday’s field, so if Pemaquid Pete bounces back to peak form in his second run of the season, he’ll be tough to beat.

Still, it might not hurt to throw one backup horse into the mix. #4 Tiz Tact Toe (5-1) earned sharp Speed ratings in his final three starts of 2023 at Presque Isle, including when rallying to victory in a $6,250 claimer. One subsequent misfire on dirt can be forgiven. Tiz Tact Toe is eligible to produce a strong run while returning to Tapeta for trainer Eduardo Rojas, who—as mentioned previously—wins at a 32% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

If we use only Pemaquid Pete and Tiz Tact Toe in Race 4, that cuts our Pick 5 possibilities to consider down to 1,620 across the three remaining races. At that point, we can cover a lot of horses and still play affordable tickets.

Good luck!