Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Runaway Joke can win again

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Sept. 3, at Finger Lakes, Presque Isle Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including horses to play in Presque Isle’s $394 Pick 5 carryover.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 3: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

#6 Runaway Joke (7-2) has been on fire since transferring to the care of trainer Ralph D’Alessandro at Finger Lakes. On July 8, he crushed a next-out winner by 8 1/4 lengths in a six-furlong allowance. On Aug. 12, he wired another six-furlong allowance by four lengths.

Those runaway victories yielded strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and 87. A third straight victory is within reach for Runaway Joke, so let’s bet him to win.

Selections

• #6 Runaway Joke (7-2)
• #4 Mischief Joke (2-1)
• #5 D’ont Lose Cruz (6-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #6 Runaway Joke

Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: $8,500 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:48 p.m. ET)

#1 Richiesinthehouse (9-5) has compiled a stellar 9-7-2-0 record at Presque Isle Downs. He’s gone 3-2-1-0 here this year, winning a $5,000 claimer and a $6,250 starter allowance before failing by a head to take a $10,000 claimer.

Dropping back down in class for an $8,500 claimer should make this speedy 10-year-old tough to catch. A win bet is in order, along with a small exacta using #2 Span of Control (4-1) for second place. The latter has won three straight starts at Presque Isle Downs.

Selections

• #1 Richiesinthehouse (9-5)
• #2 Span of Control (4-1)
• #4 General Winston (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Richiesinthehouse
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 2
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#5 Tiz Sweet Emotion (5-2) has competed exclusively in Kentucky so far. Two starts back, she ran second in a $50,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Ellis Park lawn. Last time out, she finished seventh (beaten only 2 3/4 lengths) after setting the pace in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the same course.

Tiz Sweet Emotion may find the competition easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Her last two Brisnet Speed ratings (81 and 88) tower over the par-winning number (74) for Tuesday’s conditions. None of her rivals have posted a number higher than 78.

At 5-2, a win bet on Tiz Sweet Emotion is warranted.

Selections

• #5 Tiz Sweet Emotion (5-2)
• #1 Mambo Master (12-1)
• #10 Vino in Florence (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Tiz Sweet Emotion

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $394 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

Bettors didn’t play the Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs as heavily on Labor Day as they do on a typical Monday. The result? No one hit the 50-cent wager, triggering a $394 carryover into Tuesday’s card.

Tuesday’s Late Pick 5 races have attracted a total of 43 horses, averaging 8.6 per race. Before scratches, there are 44,352 possible outcomes — a challenging number but not unmanageable.

Many bettors figure to look at race 4, the opening leg of the Late Pick 5, and conclude heavy favorite #6 Fierce and Strong (7-5) is worth singling. The four-year-old gelding owns strong Brisnet Speed ratings, including a 91 posted when wiring the With Anticipation S. against Pennsylvania-breds at Penn National.

But here’s the problem: The With Anticipation took place on turf, a surface over which Fierce and Strong has compiled a 7-5-2-0 record. Race 4 is a non-state-restricted $25,000 starter optional claimer taking place over one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta. Fierce and Strong’s record on Tapeta is much less compelling: 4-1-1-0, with his lone victory coming in an allowance for Pennsylvania-breds last fall.

Fierce and Strong’s best Brisnet Speed rating on Tapeta is an 85, which means he holds little edge over #7 Clarestown (9-2), a six-year-old gelding with a chance to spring a surprise as the third choice on the morning line.

Clarestown is a capable enough competitor on dirt and turf, but running on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs might be his true calling. He made his debut over this surface in a $25,000 claimer racing one mile and 70 yards on July 16. The result? A gate-to-wire victory by five lengths that yielded an 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

That effort also marked Clarestown’s first start for high-percentage trainer Scooter Davis, a 29% winner at Presque Isle this meet. Clarestown enters Tuesday’s contest off a bullet half-mile workout in :46 4/5 at Presque Isle, and he’s picking up jockey Rosario Montanez, a 40% winner teaming up with Davis over the last two months.

Clearly there’s a lot to like about Clarestown. Can Fierce and Strong win race 4? It’s definitely possible, and he’s worth including in the Late Pick 5. But at the same time, he looms as a vulnerable favorite who shouldn’t be trusted as a single. Clarestown has a chance to upset at enticing odds.

Good luck!