Turf Stakes Spot Plays for Churchill Downs on Oaks Day

A total of seven black-type races will help comprise a massive card at Churchill Downs on Friday, led by the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1). In this piece I will focus on the trio of stakes events for the ladies that will be contested on the turf on the huge afternoon of action.

Race 6 – Modesty S. (G3)

The 1 1/8-mile affair for fillies and mares attracted an excellent field of nine, led by a pair of Grade 1 heroines from the Chad Brown shedrow. Millionaire #7 Shantisara (2-1) possesses more tactical speed than her stablemate #6 McKulick (5-2) and figures to get the jump on that classy filly turning for home under Flavien Prat. The five-year-old is three-for-three at the distance and has had the benefit of having two outings under her belt in 2023. The Irish-bred, who romped in the 2022 Jenny Wiley S. (G1) at Keeneland, would move up even more if there is some moisture in the ground as she thrives over green with some give in it.

Race 8 – Unbridled Sidney S.

Reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) victress #11 Caravel (4-5) will lead a dozen fillies and mares to the gate in the 5 1/12-furlong dash on the lawn. I fully respect the speedy Mizzen Mast mare, and she has a major class edge on the majority of her foes, but I feel compelled to search for more value in the heat.

I’m expecting a big run from the Brendan Walsh-trained #3 Majestic d’Oro (15-1) from off the pace at a nice number. The chestnut daughter of Speightster ran well in two of her three tries to date on the green, which includes a good fourth behind Twilight Gleaming in the Mamzelle S. here in May last year. She comes in fresh for a very good layoff conditioner, and the late runner figures to have a fast pace to rally into down the stretch. Having Irad Ortiz in the stirrups aids the cause.

Race 10 – Edgewood S. (G2)

An outstanding group of 11 sophomores fillies will vie in the 1 1/16-mile contest. I could land on numerous fillies in this dynamic and well-matched tussle, but ultimately my value pick will come from the barn of Brad Cox. #8 Heavenly Sunday (8-1) was a facile winner in her first pair of turf assignments to begin her career, prior to registering positive third-place results in both the Sweetest Chant S. (G3) and Appalachian S. (G2). In the latter, the dark bay daughter of Candy Ride never got a breather on the front end but still finished a clear third, and she figures to receive a more favorable voyage on Friday. It will be difficult for the miss to hold off the bevy of stout late-running types in the affair, but she will be well positioned turning for home with Florent Geroux taking the reins.