Turfway: Finding value in the Likely Exchange Stakes on Jan. 15

A well-matched field of 10 fillies and mares will go postward in Saturday’s $100,000 Likely Exchange S. at Turfway Park. The Doug Danner-trained #3 Rogue Too (5-1) comes in off the short layoff and moves from the turf back to his favored surface in this affair. The First Dude six-year-old has compiled a nifty 11-8-1-1 mark on the main strip at Turfway Park in his lifetime and seems poised for a big run on Saturday.

Likely Exchange S. Wagers

• $15 win and place #3 Rogue Too ($30)
• 50-cent trifecta 3 with 1, 6, 10 with all ($12)

The bay mare ran a strong one in her latest outing locally when third in the Latonia S. on the oval in March. She is 6-for-12 at the distance, and the lass has an advantageous running style in this spot. Equipped with very good tactical speed, the Florida-bred will be in a prime spot while never far back early, prior to getting first run on the closing types at the top of the lane. Rogelio Miranda, who has good experience on the mare, will guide the top pick.

#10 Good Fight (10-1) gave a nice account of herself in her initial run locally when a clear runner-up in the My Charmer S. for conditioner Phil Sims. The gray daughter of Afleet Alex has shown considerable improvement since joining this barn three back, and while the outside draw is not ideal, the five-year-old has some gate presence and will avoid being hung wide throughout with a clean break from the gate under Edgar Morales. The Florida-bred has top-three appeal at a fine number.

#6 Ylikedis (4-1) has solid turf form and is worth including in the vertical exotics while making her local bow for Ignacio Correas. The Street Sense five-year-old was a game allowance victress on the lawn at Fair Grounds in her most recent endeavor. My Charmer S. third #1 Fate Factor (7-2) has won or placed in all but one lifetime try on synthetic, and she is well drawn on the rail for this heat. She will track the pace while saving ground throughout under Joe Rocco.