TwinSpires Jury: Bets and fades for June 24

Royal Ascot draws to a close for another year and the Ohio Derby (G3) tops the stakes calendar on a relatively quiet Saturday on the domestic front. A scaled-down TwinSpires Jury convenes with their weekly insights.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: In Saturday’s fourth races at Ellis Park, #4 Lemon Bomb (10-1) faces a pair of short-priced rivals (Callie’s Grit and Sahlabiya) who have shown an affinity for finishing second or third, recording six seconds and two thirds from nine career starts, and I will tab the three-year-old filly in her 2023 opener for new trainer Eddie Kenneally. She missed the break when rallying to be a head second in her career debut last fall, a turf maiden special weight at Aqueduct, and Lemon Bomb should appreciate the return to turf and added ground.

I also like #3 Sprinklehead (8-1) on the front end in the sixth race at Ellis.

Vance Hanson: The finale at Ellis Park is a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden, and #8 Eternal Bliss (4-1) seemingly needs only mild improvement off of his debut back in March to make a serious run at the diploma. Making his first appearance at Gulfstream, he broke sharp from a wide draw and remained in the mix between rivals until midstretch when he weakened to fourth, losing by 2 1/2 lengths. That initial experience should serve him well, and horses generally take a step forward second out.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: Back class is no issue for Grade 2 winner #2 Gerrymander (8-5) in Saturday’s ninth race at Belmont Park, but her declining form offers no appeal. Chad Brown adds Lasix on the drop down to allowance competition, but Gerrymander doesn’t appear sharp presently.

VH: #4 Principe d'Oro (7-2) is a mild 7-2 morning line choice in the eighth race at Ellis Park, and there's a chance he might not even go favored in the first-level allowance test over a mile on the turf. Whether he is or not, it's not entirely clear he will be as effective on the grass as he has been lately on the dirt. Though favored in his lone prior run on the turf (his debut), he was off tardily and never made an impact. He is likely better than what he showed that day more than a year ago, but I still think value will like elsewhere with rivals that have shown an affinity for the surface already.

What else is worth noting?

JS: Two Phil’s is the horse to beat in Saturday’s $500,000 Ohio Derby (G3) following a strong second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but I will try to beat the likely odds-on favorite with #3 Bishops Bay (3-1), who exits an excellent head second to Arcangelo in the Peter Pan (G3). Arcangelo and Bishops Bay had similar profiles entering their stakes debut last time – progressive three-year-olds potentially early in their development – and Bishops Bay rates as a candidate to keep moving forward for Brad Cox. I like the grit and determination displayed by Bishops Bay in all three starts.

VH: The 2023 Royal Ascot meet draws to a close Saturday, and the two main features will be very enticing. International representation from Australia, Hong Kong, and the U.S. enhances the six-furlong Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1), while later in the card a solid field of older horses compete in the 1 1/2-mile Hardwicke (G2). Although morning line favorite Hukum is likely to be a late scratch in the Hardwicke due to the fast ground, the five-year-old mare Free Wind could give the retiring Frankie Dettori a terrific sendoff with a big effort in the final Group stakes he will ever ride at the Royal meeting.