Using Brisnet sire stats for pedigree handicapping

Handicapping horses by analyzing pedigree can be a helpful tool to identify which runners are suited to particular race conditions. And sire statistics are some of the most useful pedigree tools to utilize.

Since top Thoroughbred stallions sire hundreds of foals each year, there is a lot of data to draw from. Distill that data into handy statistics, and you’re bound to come up with some informative betting angles.

Sire statistics are available from many sources, and one of the most convenient is Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, which come packed with a variety of stats (for both sires and dam sires) to aid your pedigree handicapping.

Depending on the conditions of the race, Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances may include the following sire stats.

AWD

This abbreviation stands for “average winning distance” and designates the average winning distance of the sire’s progeny, measured in furlongs.

As a broad rule, an AWD of 7.5 or more indicates a stallion who passes on stamina, while an AWD less than 6.5 points toward a stallion known for siring sprinters.

A.P. Indy, a renowned source of stamina in modern pedigrees, had an AWD of 8.2. Forest Wildcat, a sprinter known for passing on speed, had an AWD of 6.2. Into Mischief, a two-time leading sire, whose progeny thrive over a wide variety of distances, has an AWD of 6.8.

Young stallions tend to have low AWD ratings until their foals mature and have an opportunity to race longer distances. And across the board — not just for AWD ratings — small sample sizes can skew sire statistics and produce extreme results that should be taken with a grain of salt.

%Mud and MudSts

These figures indicate the success of a stallion’s foals over wet dirt tracks.

If the stats say “14%Mud” and “786MudSts,” this means the stallion’s foals have made 786 starts over wet dirt tracks and won 14% of them.

If a stallion sires around 18% or more mud winners from a few hundred starters, you can assume his foals tend to perform well over wet tracks.

Smart Strike, whose descendants generally thrive over off going, sired 19% mud winners from more than 2,000 starters.

%Turf

This indicates the percentage of turf races won by a stallion’s foals. If a stallion sires more than 12% winners on turf, you’re looking at a capable grass sire.

Kitten’s Joy and English Channel, two of the leading turf sires in North America, sire 14% winners on grass.

%1st

This figure designates the rate at which a stallion’s foals win their debuts. If a stallion sires 15% or more winners from first-time starters, his progeny tend to be early maturing sorts who show speed from a young age.

Into Mischief, a leading sire of juveniles, gets 15% winners from first-time starters.

%1stT

This specifies the percentage of races won by a stallion’s foals when they run on turf for the first time, including horses who debut on grass and horses who switch to turf, after they started their career on dirt and/or synthetic.

A figure of 10% or higher is encouraging to see. English Channel’s percentage stands at 10%, while Kitten’s Joy comes in at 13%.

spi

This abbreviation stands for “Sire Production Index,” a rating used to compare the average earnings of a stallion’s progeny with the average earnings of the progeny of all other North American stallions.

That’s quite a mouthful, but it’s actually simple. The average earnings for the progeny of all North America sires is marked by 1.00, so the progeny of a stallion with a 1.50 spi earn 50% more than average.

An spi better than 1.50 is the mark of a successful sire, though elite stallions can go even higher — Into Mischief’s rating stands at 2.59, while A.P. Indy’s was 4.19.

Armed with expanded knowledge of Brisnet sire stats, you can make more informed pedigree handicapping decisions when betting horse races. Good luck!