Value Plays for the 2022 Red Smith Stakes

November 25th, 2022

An overflow field of 14 is entered for Saturday’s $300,000 Red Smith S. (G2) at Aqueduct. The 1 3/8-mile grassy test features a well-matched cast with multiple horses offering excellent value in the feature.

The Chad Brown-trained #3 Balthus (9-2) is not a huge price, but at his morning-line number, I feel that the son of Galileo offers very good value in the turf marathon contest. Irish-bred gelding added blinkers for his 2022 debut following a pair of unplaced showings to begin his career, and the four-year-old has shown marked improvement this campaign with the hood on.

Balthus breezed through allowance conditions in the summer and closed late to be a nice fifth in the Sycamore S. (G3) at Keeneland last time out despite enduring traffic in the race. The chestnut draws well and possesses the tactical speed to stay in range from the break, which is an important trait to have in such a sizable field. Regular pilot Manny Franco retains the mount.

#7 Reigning Spirit (15-1) missed by a head in the Louisville S. (G3) at Churchill Downs in May in his lone stakes try to date, and I expect the son of War Front to make his presence felt on this occasion. Trained by Al Stall, the bay has elevated his game since running longer distances on the lawn, and I was impressed with his game allowance victory at Keeneland most recently, as well.

The gelding has been hampered by receiving wide draws on multiple occasions this season, and he figures to get a reasonable trip from this slot on Saturday with Junior Alvarado taking the reins. He is a generous number on the morning line, too.

#10 Beacon Hill (20-1) has been mostly consistent for conditioner Michael Matz, and the longshot ran one of his best races at 1 1/2 miles in the Empire State in 2021. By Blame, the gelded five-year-old displayed his versatility when runner-up in an off-the-turf stakes event in Maryland most recently and should be ready for this endeavor while stalking the pace early on. He is worth using in the vertical plays with Dylan Davis in the stirrups.

The multiple Grade 1-placed #9 Soldier Rising (5-2) is the class of the field, but he’s not a win machine and I feel that he is worth trying to beat for the top prize. #1 Highest Honors (5-1) has gone close in a trio of graded races in his last four, but the son of Tapit is another who might be best used underneath in the exotics with Irad up.

Red Smith Value Wagers

  • $10 win and place #3 Balthus ($20)
  • $4 exacta key box 3 with 7,10 ($16)
  • 50-cent superfecta key 3 with 1,7,9,10 ($12)

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