Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Fair Grounds $32,902 Pick 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds, including horses to play in the $32,902 Pick 5 carryover at Fair Grounds. 

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January, excluding Dec. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 7: $50,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 2:18 p.m. ET)

#1 Golden Irish (2-1) was tons the best when debuting in a six-furlong $30,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland, dominating by 14 3/4 lengths in the solid time of 1:10.76.

That runaway win yielded a flashy 91 Brisnet Speed rating nine points higher than the par winning number (82) for Thursday’s conditions at Fair Grounds. Golden Irish looks ready to win right back under hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione, so let’s bet her over the improving #7 Keyana (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Golden Irish (2-1)
• #7 Keyana (3-1)
• #6 Gerlin’s Empire (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 exacta: 1 with 7

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:00 p.m. ET)

#6 Texas Cyclone (9-2) is an unraced son of Vekoma, a Grade 1-winning sprinter/miler who is siring 25% winners from first-time starters.

Texas Cyclone has put together a sharp work tab for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who has gone 5-for-23 (22%) debuting juveniles on dirt at Fair Grounds since 2020. Throw in red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz (a 40% winner at Fair Grounds this meet), and a win bet on Texas Cyclone is in order.

Selections

• #6 Texas Cyclone (9-2)
• #5 Zoom (4-1)
• #4 Chases Magic (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Texas Cyclone

Churchill Downs: Race 12: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:43 p.m. ET)

#2 Jane Payne (4-1), a daughter of Grade 1-winning sprinter Jimmy Creed, has turned in some sharp workouts in preparation for her debut. On Nov. 15, she clocked half a mile from the Turfway Park starting gate in a swift :47 2/5.

Jane Payne looms as a logical contender in this maiden special weight for juvenile fillies who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction. At 4-1, she’s worth betting to win.

Selections

• #2 Jane Payne (4-1)
• #5 Standbyfortakeoff (10-1)
• #7 Chasing Glory (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Jane Payne

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 5: $4,716 Pick 6 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)
Fair Grounds: Race 6: $32,902 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)

Fair Grounds is celebrating Thanksgiving Day with $32,902 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5. Now there’s a prize pool you’ll want to feast upon.

There’s also a $4,716 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6. The Pick 5 sequence spans Races 6-10, while the Pick 6 covers Races 5-10.

We’ve already analyzed Race 7, a maiden special weight in which #6 Texas Cyclone (9-2) looms as our top choice at a nice price. But for Pick 5 purposes, two other first-time starters are worth including. They are #5 Zoom (4-1), a speedily bred youngster from the high-percentage barn of Brad Cox, and #4 Chases Magic (9-2), a fast-working gelding trained by Tom Amoss.

The feature event in the Pick 5 sequence is Race 9, the $225,000 Thanksgiving Classic S. taking place over six furlongs on dirt. A large 11-horse field has turned out, and there are many talented entrants, including Commonwealth (G3) winner #10 Bo Cruz (6-1), the red-hot former claimer #7 Red Flag (8-1), and last year’s Malibu (G1) third-place finisher #1 Giant Mischief (7-2).

The latter two in particular are appealing. Red Flag recently won a $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar by 2 1/2 lengths over next-out Native Diver (G3) winner Skinner. And Giant Mischief posted a lofty 105 Brisnet Speed rating when ending a long layoff with a gate-to-wire $100,000 allowance optional claiming win at Keeneland.

Nevertheless, our top choice is the lightly raced #5 Montalcino (4-1), who boasts an unblemished 2-for-2 record. After beating a couple of next-out winners in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, the speedy three-year-old wired a seven-furlong allowance at Keeneland by six lengths over another next-out winner.

The latter victory produced a 101 Brisnet Speed rating, and Montalcino earned that number despite setting intense fractions of :21.61 and :43.79 and while spending some of the race running away from the rail over a track that played favorably toward inside runners.

Montalcino still has upside and may be a stakes star in the making. Under hot jockey Jose Ortiz, Montalcino looms as a serious win threat at fair odds. Don’t leave him off your tickets.

Good luck!