Churchill: Exotics Plays for the Tepin Stakes

Tepin Stakes Exotics Wagers

$2 exacta key box 8 with 1,5,7,11 ($16)

$1 trifecta key 8 with 1,5,7,11 ($12)

$.50-cent superfecta 8 with 11 with 1,5,7 with all ($12)

$.50-cent superfecta 8 with 1,5,7 with 11 with all ($12)

Tepin Stakes Analysis

A field of 11 sophomore fillies will travel one mile on the Churchill Downs lawn in Saturday’s $250,000 Tepin S. The finale on a sensational card attracted a very good crew in what appears to be a well-matched group, but I’ll be centering my wagers around one filly. 

I tabbed #8 Pipsy (7-2) in her winning U. S. debut when she went last-to-first in the Soaring Softly S. (G3) at Aqueduct and will come right back with the import. The Woodford Thoroughbreds’ color bearer was making her initial run as a three-year-old in the Empire State last out and gave a fine impression of herself in the affair. Trained by William Walden, the expensive daughter of Kodiac has never run longer than seven-eighths and is not fleet in the early stages, but her pedigree and running style both suggest that eight furlongs will be well within her scope. I feel that any kind of surface will be fine for the exciting prospect, and any give in the ground will be to her benefit, as well. Flavien Prat retains the ride and will give this one her cue approaching the turn for home.

#11 Just Better (12-1) has appeal at a price under Frankie Dettori. This Justify filly has improved her Brisnet Speed figure in each lifetime appearance, and she comes off a clear runner-up performance behind the talented She Feels Pretty in the Hilltop S,. at Pimlico while making her black-type bow. The chestnut has finished first or second in each of her four career runs to date, and I like that she has tactical speed in a field lacking an abundance of pace. The Whisper Hill homebred will need to improve to challenge late, but I expect her to do so for Steve Asmussen. 

#1 Simply in Front (4-1) was a clear allowance heroine on the course in her second run of the season and will be a major contender with a forward move in her third run since joining Eddie Kenneally. The daughter of Summer Front will save ground throughout from the rail beneath Luis Saez. 

I’ll also dabble with both of the contenders from the Rusty Arnold shedrow. #7 Kodiac Wintergreen (12-1) should appreciate the move to a mile and is a big number with Florent Geroux in the stirrups. Penn Oaks queen #5 Poolside With Slim (5-1) has a touch of class, as well as early speed, and the daughter of Churchill fired a bullet three panels in advance of Saturday, too. Tyler Gaffalione will take the reins.