Fair Grounds: Analyzing the $62,343 Pick 6 carryover

Sunday is closing day at Fair Grounds, which means the $62,343 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 is scheduled to be paid out in mandatory fashion.

The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 7 (post time 4:45 p.m. ET). The final three legs of the sequence are stakes for horses bred in Louisiana, and all have drawn competitive fields.

Let’s analyze the three stakes through the lens of assembling Pick 6 tickets:

Race 10: Star Guitar S. (1 1/16 miles on dirt)

This race looks wide-open since heavy morning-line favorite #1 Touchuponastar (3-5) is expected to scratch after winning the New Orleans Classic (G2) on Saturday.

The remaining seven entrants have been pretty much taking turns finishing ahead of each other in recent meetings. We’ll give a slight edge to #4 Behemah Star (6-1), whose recent dirt form is solid. In November, he returned from a three-month layoff to finish a close third in the Jacob V. Morreale Memorial S. at Fair Grounds. Then, following a defeat on turf, he wired a Fair Grounds allowance with a flashy 94 Brisnet Speed rating.

Other horses Pick 6 bettors should consider using include #7 Cosmic Train (10-1), winner of the Jacob V. Morreale Memorial, and #3 Blue Cheese (12-1), runner-up to Touchuponastar in the LA Bred Premier Night Championship S.

Race 11: Page Cortez S. (5 1/2 furlongs on turf)

#1 Six String (5-2), victorious in multiple stakes on dirt, is also 2-for-2 on turf. Last time out, she led all the way to win a $35,000 allowance optional claimer dashing about 5 1/2 furlongs over the Fair Grounds lawn. Surely she’s the filly to beat in the Page Cortez?

Yes… and no. Six String’s allowance win came by a head in a three-horse photo finish over #7 Rue Lala (4-1) and #8 Sassi Strutter (5-1). Either of these runners could turn the tables in the Page Cortez, and there are other viable contenders too. #6 Classy Judy G (9-2) has posted sharp Brisnet Speed ratings on turf, and #10 Tommie G (6-1) may appreciate cutting back in distance after placing in multiple stakes running long on grass.

We recommend spreading deep in the Page Cortez, using as many of the logical contenders as your budget allows.

Race 12: Shantel Lanerie Memorial S. (one mile and 70 yards on dirt)

Although #8 Sweet Darlin (7-2) has yet to run farther than six furlongs, her 3-for-4 lifetime record and sharp Brisnet Speed ratings suggest she’s a must-use contender while stretching out in distance.

But don’t stand alone with Sweet Darlin. #6 Certified Gem (5-1) is fast enough to challenge, especially if you forgive her last-out misfire over the bullring track at Delta Downs. And don’t dismiss the California raider #3 Liberal Lady (5-1); she’s been freshened since December and is eligible to outrun expectations in her first start against fellow Louisiana-breds.

Good luck!