Fair Grounds: Horses to bet in the $2,917 Pick 6 carryover

There are five stakes races taking place on Saturday at Fair Grounds. Four of them are part of a $1 Pick 6 featuring a $2,917 carryover.

The Pick 6 sequence also contains a high-profile allowance in which a 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) alumnus is entered.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a couple of races in which bettors playing on modest budgets can feel good about their chances using only one or two horses:

Race 6: #3 Just a Touch (4-5)

Race 6 is an allowance for older horses racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt, and Just a Touch is a standout from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective.

A four-year-old son of Triple Crown winner Justify, Just a Touch won his debut at Fair Grounds last year and later placed second in the Blue Grass (G1), Gotham (G3), and Iowa Derby. His only misfire for the year came in the Kentucky Derby, when the normally forwardly placed colt wound up racing in midfield before tiring to finish last.

Just a Touch’s four exacta finishes yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 100, 99, 97, and 97. None of his Saturday rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 94, so anything close to a peak performance from Just a Touch should be sufficient to visit the winner’s circle.

Some bettors may hesitate to stand alone with Just a Touch since he hasn’t raced in nearly eight months. But nine timed workouts since Dec. 22 should have him ready to roll for hot trainer Brad Cox, a 28% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Bettors can feel confident singling Just a Touch in the Pick 6.

Race 9: #2 Golden Afternoon (3-1) and #6 Chasing Liberty (2-1)

The penultimate leg of the Pick 6 is the $100,000 Black Gold S. for three-year-olds racing about 1 1/16 miles on turf. Two horses loom as the most likely win threats.

The first is Chasing Liberty. He’s gone 2-for-2 since stretching out around two turns on turf. First he won the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance S. at Del Mar by a neck, then he dominated the Texas Turf Mile at Sam Houston by 2 3/4 lengths.

The other primary contender is Golden Afternoon. He exits a solid fourth-place in the Lecomte (G3) on dirt, and last year he showed excellent form on turf. He won his debut sprinting at Kentucky Downs, finished second in Keeneland’s Bourbon (G2), and then won a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds.

We recommend using Chasing Liberty and Golden Afternoon equally in the Pick 6.

Good luck!