Finding Value in the Deep Hollywood Derby

A massive field of 13 sophomores will go 1 1/8 miles on the Del Mar lawn in Saturday’s $300,000 Hollywood Derby (G1). In a cast with so many viable options, I feel that value can be found with nearly any contender in the crew. 

Hollywood Derby Wagers:

$10 win/place/show #2 Rothschild ($30)
$1 exacta 2 with all ($12)

Hollywood Derby Analysis at Del Mar

Tim Yakteen-trained #2 Rothschild has yet to win on the turf, but the son of Uncle Mo has a lot of ability and also has performed well on the Del Mar lawn from two local assignments to date. Bred in the Bluegrass State, the $700,000 yearling purchase broke his maiden with authority as a juvenile in his second lifetime run at this venue, prior to finishing unplaced in a pair of subsequent Grade-1 tilts on the dirt. 

Moved to the sod for the first time in the Cecil B. DeMille S. (G3) for his two-year-old finale, the colt put in a big late run to be second by a neck in his initial try on the Del Mar green. The bay made a big middle move in the Oceanside S. in July before ultimately checking in third off the long layoff, and he was next seen finishing third once again in the lucrative Nashville Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs on August 31. 

Rothschild didn’t do his best at Santa Anita last time out when showing little in the lane of the Twilight Derby (G2), but I am willing to give the well-bred sort a pass for his subpar showing. The sophomore has trained forwardly in the interim, he returns to a surface that he performs well upon, and the upset selection also inherits pilot Flavien Prat which is a huge plus in my estimation. 

I expect the tactical bay to sit in the second or third flight in the early stages while saving ground behind a lively early tempo, prior to being asked for his best run. The colt doesn’t have a sustained late kick, but he surely has a nice turn of foot, and he will be very dangerous at a healthy price if he receives a well-timed ride combined with some racing luck.