Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $20 double at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Feb. 28 at Santa Anita and Turfway Park, along with a horse to single in the $1,247 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at The Meadowlands: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at The Meadowlands each racing day from Feb. 21 through March 29.
• Oaklawn Park 15% Across the Board Boost: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning individual win, place, and show wagers—or combination of win, place, and show wagers—at Oaklawn Park each Friday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Oaklawn Bonus Feeder Friday to 3/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 3/8 Tampa Bay Derby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Santa Anita: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 7:38 p.m. ET)

Formerly based in Ireland, #8 Mythical Reel (9-2) made his U.S. debut in a six-furlong turf maiden special weight on Jan. 5. He raced off the pace before passing a couple of rivals to finish fifth in his return from a four-month layoff.

Stretching out over one mile for his second U.S. start should help Mythical Reel vie for victory under red-hot jockey Flavien Prat, who has gone 3-for-7 (43%) teaming up with trainer Phil D’Amato over the last two months. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Mythical Reel (9-2)
• #1 Muscled (2-1)
• #7 Helicity (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Mythical Reel

Turfway Park: Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#10 Talent Show (8-5) has finished fourth in her first two starts against maiden special weight competition at Turfway. Those efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 82 and 75, the highest and third-highest numbers in Friday’s field.

Dropping into a $30,000 maiden claimer can send Talent Show to the winner’s circle for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. Let’s single Talent Show to start a double wager.

Selections

• #10 Talent Show (8-5)
• #4 Parking Lot Pours (8-1)
• #11 Halfin (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 10 with 1

Turfway Park: Race 6: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

Stakes-placed #1 Pretty Liam (5-2) ran well when making her Turfway Park debut in a six-furlong allowance last month. After settling in midfield, she rallied to win by four lengths with a respectable 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

There’s plenty of pace in Friday’s field to enhance Pretty Liam’s late charge, and it’s encouraging to note she’s drawn the rail post, which has produced 14% winners in six-furlong sprints at Turfway since Dec. 4.

We’ll single Pretty Liam to conclude our double wager, then bet her over #4 Girl of My Dreams (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Pretty Liam (5-2)
• #4 Girl of My Dreams (3-1)
• #7 J Rivers (6-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 1 with 4

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $1,247 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

It won’t be easy to win a share of Friday’s $1,247 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds. The six-race sequence for the $1 wager is packed to overflowing with competitive races and large fields.

Before scratches, the Pick 6 contains 67 horses (averaging about 11.2 per race) and a staggering 1,451,520 possible outcomes. Even once you remove nine also-eligible and main-track-only entrants from consideration, there are 58 horses (averaging about 9.7 per race) and 712,800 possible outcomes to analyze.

But mathematical challenges aside, there is one leg of the Pick 6 that looks completely straightforward to handicap. Race 3, a $35,000 allowance optional claimer for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, has drawn only six horses. And morning-line favorite #2 Six String (8-5) looks like a standout choice to win.

Six String has spent most of her career competing on dirt. Her last six starts have come against stakes competition, and she’s won three of them. In December, she nabbed the Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint S. at Fair Grounds with an 84 Brisnet Speed rating. Last time out, she romped by 4 1/4 lengths in the LA Bred Premier Night Matron S. at Delta Downs, earning an 87 Brisnet Speed rating.

But Six String has also shown talent on turf. Her lone start on grass yielded a 2 1/2-length win in a five-furlong allowance at Evangeline Downs last summer, for which she earned an 87 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Six String’s Friday rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 85 in their last four starts apiece, so Six String has an edge over this field. She looks tough to beat while returning to grass for trainer Allen Landry (who wins at a 19% rate in turf races), so bettors can feel confident singling Six String in the Pick 6.

Good luck!