Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $29,547 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Feb. 14 at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in carryovers at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds.

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• Oaklawn Park 15% Across the Board Boost: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning individual win, place, and show wagers—or combination of win, place, and show wagers—at Oaklawn Park each Friday in February.
• Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 Bet/Get: Wager at least $50+ during the duration of Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 to receive 20% cash back (maximum $100), along with an invitation to an exclusive Kentucky Derby Week Bet/Get Offer.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Oaklawn Bonus Feeder Friday to 2/15 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier
• $160 Turfway Feeder to 2/22 Rebel KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: $17,500 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 1:55 p.m. ET)

Since all the experienced runners in this field have previously lost at this class level or lower, we’ll try backing the first-time starter #1 Saint Ephrem (8-1).

A son of promising young stallion Tiz the Law (who is siring 18% winners from first-time starters), Saint Ephrem hails from the barn of John Servis, who wins at a 20% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers.

A simple win bet is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #1 Saint Ephrem (8-1)
• #2 Tonight (7-5)
• #5 Cajun’s Cookin (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Saint Ephrem

Santa Anita: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 6:02 p.m. ET)

#5 Baeza (5-2) ran well in a fast one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita last month, finishing second behind Rodriguez. The latter returned to take runner-up honors behind champion Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Baeza figures to find the competition a bit easier on Friday. Let’s bet him over #1 Rank (2-1) and #3 Varney (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Baeza (5-2)
• #1 Rank (2-1)
• #3 Varney (7-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($20)

Turfway Park: Race 7: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Thundering Heart (8-1) didn’t show much when finishing last of eight in his debut. But that was a one-mile maiden special weight on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis; dropping in class and switching to Tapeta offers potential for improvement.

Plus, Thundering Heart is adding blinkers, racing on Lasix for the first time, and picking up red-hot apprentice jockey Irving Moncada (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance). One or all of these changes may allow Thundering Heart to take a meaningful step forward.

Let’s try a win bet on this 8-1 midrange longshot.

Selections

• #5 Thundering Heart (8-1)
• #7 Milei (9-2)
• #2 Indy Charges On (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Thundering Heart

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $2,172 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Fair Grounds includes a $2,172 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

One of the most challenging legs of the Pick 6 sequence is Race 6, a $12,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #5 Elodine (5-2) is the morning-line favorite after finishing second in each of her last three starts over this track, distance, and class level. Perhaps she’ll catch an easier field on Friday and finally score a breakthrough victory, but she doesn’t look unbeatable.

The problem is, none of the other experienced runners bring particularly compelling form to the table. It shouldn’t take a big performance to win this race, which means even longshots are eligible to improve enough to visit the winner’s circle.

We recommend using two other horses alongside Elodine. #4 Shehasanattitude (8-1) finished only one length behind Elodine when third over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 16. The daughter of Tiznow has tactical speed, and it’s possible she’ll make the lead and shift to the rail, a positive since inside runners have recently fared well at Fair Grounds.

On that note, don’t overlook the first-time starter #1 Hide the Bride (5-1). Trainer Brian Williamson wins at a respectable 10% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and Hide the Bride has every chance to work out a ground-saving trip from post 1.

Gulfstream Park: Race 9: $29,547 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

You’ll definitely want to take aim at the $29,547 carryover up for grabs in Friday’s $1 Super High 5 at Gulfstream Park.

The prize pool is on the table in Race 9, a $25,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies racing 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. A competitive 10-horse field has turned out, and anyone who constructs a winning ticket is likely to catch a lucrative payoff.

We’re keen to support #10 Pretty Thing (5-1), a former British campaigner who ran second in a six-furlong maiden race on turf at Hamilton Park last year. She recently returned from a long layoff to make her U.S. debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over Gulfstream’s Tapeta track, finishing sixth.

Dropping in class, returning to turf, and stretching out over 7 1/2 furlongs are all changes that should help Pretty Thing challenge in her second start for trainer Jorge Delgado, who wins at a lofty 27% rate with horses running for the second time under his care. We recommend building Super High 5 tickets around Pretty Thing, counting on her to finish either first or second.

Good luck!