Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Cold double at Santa Anita

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Feb. 21 at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, along with plays for the $1,409 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at The Meadowlands: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at The Meadowlands each racing day from Feb. 21 through March 29.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Bonus Feeder Friday to 2/23 Rebel KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 3/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:50 p.m. ET)

Since 2023, trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has compiled an excellent 17-for-56 record (30%) saddling first-time starters in dirt sprints at Gulfstream Park.

That’s why we’re going to place a large win bet on Joseph’s unraced five-year-old #3 Bashful Daisy (9-5) in this maiden sprint for fillies and mares. Bashful Daisy has put together a long and strong work tab highlighted by a bullet half-mile in :46 3/5 at Palm Meadows, suggesting she’s fast enough and fit enough for a winning debut.

Selections

• #3 Bashful Diary (9-5)
• #4 La Girvina (9-2)
• #6 Speranzosa (2-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #3 Bashful Diary

Santa Anita: Race 7: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on turf, 6:37 p.m. ET)

Former Irish campaigner #5 Canto Della Terra (2-1) rallied boldly to win her U.S. debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last month. The daughter of Kodiac finished fast and earned a 92 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the highest number in Friday’s field.

Trainer Phil D’Amato wins at a 26% rate with horses running long for the first time, and renowned jockey Frankie Dettori is named to ride, so let’s single Canto Della Terra to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Canto Della Terra (2-1)
• #2 Resolve (10-1)
• #1 Take Another Card (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 5 with 6

Santa Anita: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 7:08 p.m. ET)

#6 Brilliantly (9-5) has put together a sharp work tab for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who wins at a 30% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights. A daughter of champion juvenile Uncle Mo (who sires 15% winners from first-time starters), Brilliantly looks ready to win her first start under hot jockey Juan Hernandez, a 40% winner teaming up with Baffert over the last two months.

We’ll single Brilliantly to conclude our double wager, then bet her over stablemate #2 Cooey (6-1) and first-time starter #3 Velocity (4-1) in an exacta. The latter filly enters off a series of fast workouts for trainer Michael McCarthy.

Selections

• #6 Brilliantly (9-5)
• #3 Velocity (4-1)
• #2 Cooey (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 2,3 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $1,409 Super High 5 carryover (12:28 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Tampa Bay Downs brings a $1,409 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Super High 5 betting at Tampa is only offered on races featuring seven or more starters. Race 1, an $8,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races, has drawn exactly seven entries. Assuming there aren’t any scratches, the carryover will be up for grabs in Race 1.

There’s very little speed entered in this 1 1/16-mile dirt contest. Only two horses have shown a tendency to race up front: #3 Humor Sense (2-1) and #4 One Violent Affair (5-2).

Of the pair, Humor Sense looms as the more likely pacesetter. She’s opened up daylight early leads in each of her last three starts. Competing over this track and class level last time out, she led by eight lengths before tiring to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths in the one-mile and 40-yard contest.

Meanwhile, One Violent Affair exits a pace-pressing 5 1/4-length victory in an $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races. That race took place over 1 1/16 miles at Tampa, so the fact she’s sticking to the same track and distance is a positive.

But here’s the problem: One Violent Affair runs well when she’s able to set or press the pace, and she misfires (often dramatically) when she falls too far off the early pace. Two starts back, One Violent Affair dropped nearly 10 lengths off the early pace in an $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races and never factored thereafter, finishing seventh.

We project that the presence of a pure pacesetter like Humor Sense will compromise One Violent Affair. Therefore, we’ll count on Humor Sense to lead Friday’s field all the way on the front end.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 2,4 with 2,4,7 with 1,2,4,6,7 with 1,2,4,6,7 ($24)

If there is a scratch from Race 1, the Super High 5 carryover will instead be offered on Race 2—assuming, of course, that Race 2 goes off with at least seven starters (there are eight entries).

Race 2 is a $16,000 maiden claimer for older horses dashing seven furlongs on dirt. We view #4 Stanley Cat (5-2) as the most likely winner. He’s adding blinkers off a third-place finish (beaten 2 1/2 lengths) in a $20,000 maiden claimer dashing six furlongs at Tampa last month. Dropping down to the $16,000 level should give Stanley Cat every chance to hold off #6 Vigano (9-5), who is dropping down in class and distance.

If you decide to bet the Race 2 Super High 5, here are tickets to consider playing:

• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 6 with 2,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,3,7,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 8 with 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,7 ($6)
  Total: $18

Good luck!