Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Exacta for Riley Allison Derby

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Jan. 17 at Fair Grounds, Sunland Park, and Turfway Park, including horses to use in Turfway’s $17,257 Super High 5 carryover.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#8 Elite Heat (3-1) ran well in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over this course and class level on Nov. 23. After carving out the pace, she stayed on to finish second by 1 3/4 lengths against Serving Time, who came right back to win a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 24% rate with second-time turf starters, and jockey Marcelino Pedroza Jr. has gone 4-for-12 (33%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months, so let’s place a win bet on Elite Heat.

Selections

• #8 Elite Heat (3-1)
• #3 Tempting Eve (9-2)
• #4 Menu Please (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Elite Heat

Sunland Park: Race 9: Riley Allison Derby (one mile on dirt, 6:00 p.m. ET)

#2 Smash It (5-2) has shown talent on the Southern California circuit. In addition to breaking his maiden, he finished second by a neck in the Speakeasy S. and second by three-quarters of a length in a maiden special weight against future Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Citizen Bull.

Most recently, Smash It took his game on the road to Zia Park, where he dominated the Zia Park Juvenile S. by three lengths. Brisnet Speed ratings and form lines suggest Smash It is the horse to beat while stretching out over one mile for the Riley Allison Derby, so we’ll bet him to win and add in an exacta using undefeated Lost in the Fog Juvenile S. winner #3 Take Charge Tom (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Smash It (5-2)
• #3 Take Charge Tom (7-2)
• #1 Wicked Trouble (6-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #2 Smash It
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#11 Fazools (7-2) has finished second by a neck and fifth by 7 1/2 lengths in her first two starts against maiden special weight competition on dirt. Her runner-up finish came racing one mile at Monmouth Park and yielded a 92 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other horses in Friday’s field have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 90, so Fazools is a logical contender while returning from a 3 1/2-month layoff for new trainer Paulo Lobo, who wins at a 24% rate with horses returning from breaks of 90 days or more.

A win bet on Fazools is in order.

Selections

• #11 Fazools (7-2)
• #10 Bundchen (2-1)
• #4 Mink Stole (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #11 Fazools

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $17,257 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

With each day that the $1 Super High 5 goes unsolved at Turfway Park, the carryover builds. The prize pool is up to $17,257 for Friday’s 10-race card at the Kentucky oval.

The carryover is available to chase in Race 10, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. Several of the entrants bring strong credentials to the table; here are four we recommend including on your tickets:

#1 M’Lady Sansa (5-1): This daughter of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Spun to Run debuted with a solid third-place finish over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 11. She was beaten only two lengths while earning a 77 Brisnet Speed rating not far off the par winning number (81) for Friday’s conditions. Another top-three finish is surely a possibility.

#4 Wondrous (6-1): A half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Maxfield, Wondrous is a Godolphin homebred trained by Brendan Walsh, who wins at a 13% rate with first-time starters. A respectable 35% of Walsh’s debuting runners record top-three finishes, and a sharp half-mile workout at Turfway last week suggests Wondrous has a chance to be among the 35%. It helps that she’s a daughter of champion juvenile Uncle Mo, who sires 14% winners from first-time starters.

#5 Top (10-1): Top has been cranking out fast workouts with regularity at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a bullet half-mile in :46 4/5 and a bullet five furlongs in :59. Trainer Michelle Elliott strikes at a 15% rate with first-time starters, and sire Army Mule sees 17% of his progeny win on debut, so Top has a good chance to outrun her double-digit odds.

#7 Pepper Girl (7-2): Arguably the strongest win threat in this field is Pepper Girl. After a couple of unremarkable efforts on turf, she switched to Tapeta for a six-furlong maiden special weight at Turfway and closed a ton of ground late to finish second by three-quarters of a length, ahead of M’Lady Sansa. That marked Pepper Girl’s first start back from a layoff, and if she improves at all in her second run back, she may rally straight to the winner’s circle.

Good luck!