Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $211,734 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, April 11 at Keeneland, including horses to play in the $211,734 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Keeneland 25% Double Down: Hit two daily doubles on Friday at Keeneland to receive a 25% bonus (maximum $25 for the day) on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Keeneland.
• 10x Points at Fraser Downs: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fraser Downs each Friday.
• Sydney Racing Carnival Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets on races at selected Australian tracks to climb the leaderboard and compete for a spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge. You can also earn your share of a $1,000 weekly prize pool.
• Keeneland 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers on any day at Keeneland from April 9 through April 11 to receive a 25% boost (up to a daily maximum of $25) on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $1,000 Keeneland KDBC/G1G Qualifier
• $200 Charles Town Feeder to 4/19 Keeneland KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 1: $10,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

There’s plenty of speed entered in this six-horse field, so we’ll favor #5 Lucky Shot (2-1) and #4 Major Wager (8-1), two runners who have showed the ability to successfully rate off the lead.

Lucky Shot does have speed, but he rallied from midfield to finish second by a half-length in a $10,000 starter allowance sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last fall.

As for Major Wager, he’s spent most of his career competing on turf and—lately—synthetic. But trainer Jamie Grubbs wins at a 24% rate with horses switching from synthetic to dirt, and Major Wager’s stretch-running style is a perfect fit for this $10,000 starter allowance.

Let’s box Lucky Shot and Major Wager in the exacta (favoring the combination with Lucky Shot on top), then use them both to start double wagers.

Selections

• #5 Lucky Shot (2-1)
• #4 Major Wager (8-1)
• #1 Twirling Roses (4-1)

Wagers

• $14 Exacta: 5 with 4
• $6 Exacta: 4 with 5
• $7 Double: 5 with 5
• $3 Double: 4 with 5
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#5 Folk Song (10-1) is an intriguing longshot. He enters off fast workouts at The Thoroughbred Center, including a couple of bullet three-furlong exercises in :36 and :35 2/5.

A son of juvenile Grade 1 winner Mor Spirit, Folk Song is eligible to surprise on debut for trainer Justin Wojczynski, who sent out 7-1 shot Pupil to finish a good second in a maiden special weight for juveniles on Thursday at Keeneland.

Let’s bet Folk Song to win and key him over the always-dangerous Wesley Ward trainees #7 Gorrono Ranch (2-1) and #1 Satisfied Mind (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Folk Song (10-1)
• #7 Gorrono Ranch (2-1)
• #1 Satisfied Mind (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Folk Song
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 4:44 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Brad Cox has compiled a terrific 7-for-15 (47%) record debuting three-year-olds on dirt at Keeneland. That bodes well for Cox’s unraced sophomore filly #3 Surprise (7-2).

A daughter of champion juvenile Good Magic (who sires a sharp 16% winners from first-time starters), Surprise enters off a bevy of bullet workouts at Payson Park and looks ready to shine on debut. Let’s bet her to win and key her over 2024 Frizette (G1) runner-up #9 Snowyte (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Surprise (7-2)
• #9 Snowyte (5-2)
• #2 Meursault (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Surprise
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 9
  Total: $35

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $211,734 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved for two days in a row, the $1 Pick 6 at Keeneland boasts a massive $211,734 carryover for Friday.

The Friday card is highlighted by two stakes: Race 7, the $300,000 Limestone S. for three-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, and Race 9, the $650,000 Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) for older horses racing one mile on turf.

Let’s analyze both races from the perspective of assembling Pick 6 tickets:

Race 7: Limestone S.

The Limestone has drawn a huge and competitive group of horses. With 12 horses in the main body of the field and four on the also-eligible list, a full field is almost certain to start.

Spreading deep may be the best strategy to survive in the Pick 6. Logical contenders include #9 Dreamaway (5-1), winner of the five-furlong Colleen S. at Monmouth last summer; #6 Shisospicy (4-1), gate-to-wire winner of a five-furlong $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park two months ago; and #7 Mighty Eriu (10-1), runner-up in the Queen Mary (G2) at Royal Ascot and the winner of a Fair Grounds $50,000 maiden optional claimer in her North American debut.

One midrange price horse you won’t want to leave off your tickets is #12 Kilwin (8-1). She opened her career with a two-length win in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park, counting future Herecomesthebride (G3) winner and Natalma (G1) runner-up Vixen among her beaten rivals.

Kilwin followed up with a rallying triumph in the 6 1/2-furlong Untapable S. at Kentucky Downs and a respectable fifth-place finish in the one-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). Cutting back to a sprint distance for her 3-year-old debut may set the stage for Kilwin to rally and win under hot jockey Luis Saez.

Race 9: Maker’s Mark Mile (G1)

Although nine horses have entered the Maker’s Mark Mile, #6 Carl Spackler (9-5) looms as a viable Pick 6 single.

The Chad Brown trainee enjoyed a strong 2024 campaign, winning the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1), Fourstardave H. (G1), Kelso (G3), and Opening Verse S. racing one mile on grass. In the Keeneland Turf Mile, he led all the way to score by one length over next-out Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner More Than Looks.

Carl Spackler ran a bit below form when finishing sixth by 2 3/4 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but he’s been freshened since then and should be formidable in his return to action under Keeneland’s leading jockey Flavien Prat. Some bettors may opt to include Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) runner-up #1 Integration (3-1) on their Pick 6 tickets as well, but racing one mile against Grade 1 company might be a bit sharp for Integration, leaving Carl Spackler as the horse to beat.

Good luck!