Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Lemon Drop Gold can win comeback

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Jan. 31 at Sunland Park and Turfway Park, including analysis of Turfway’s $5,711 Super High 5 carryover.

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• Oaklawn Park 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Oaklawn Park to receive a 25% boost (up to $25 per day) on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Oaklawn.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Oaklawn Bonus Feeder Friday to 2/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $160 Turfway Feeder to 2/8 Sam F. Davis/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Sunland Park: Race 8: La Coneja S. (six furlongs on dirt, 5:32 p.m. ET)

#2 Corrina Corrina (8-5) has won half of her 34 starts and $1,166,160 in purse money, but in her last couple of starts she’s hopped at the break and compromised her chances.

It didn’t matter in the Jan. 3 New Mexico State Racing Commision S.; despite conceding the field several lengths right out of the gate, Corrina Corrina rallied late to win by 2 1/4 lengths. But in the Jan. 17 Bold Ego H., she failed to leave the starting gate at all.

Let’s try to beat Corrina Corrina with #5 Lemon Drop Gold (3-1), a speedy eight-year-old mare who defeated Corrina Corrina by 2 1/2 lengths in the 2024 La Coneja. Lemon Drop Gold hasn’t run since then, but a nice series of workouts since December should have her fit for a competitive comeback. It helps that trainer Todd Fincher wins at a 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Selections

• #5 Lemon Drop Gold (3-1)
• #2 Corrina Corrina (8-5)
• #8 Quite Lovely (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Lemon Drop Gold

Turfway Park: Race 2: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#5 You Know Me (3-1) has finished sixth and seventh in her first two starts against maiden special weight competition at Turfway Park, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 70 and 65 that stack up well against Friday’s field.

Dropping into a $30,000 maiden claimer should allow You Know Me to challenge for victory in her second start running long, which is a 29% winning angle for trainer Eric Foster. Let’s bet her to win and single her to start a small double wager.

Selections

• #5 You Know Me (3-1)
• #3 Borderline (7-2)
• #8 Sweet Star (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 You Know Me
• $5 Double: 5 with 2
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

Whereas most of the fillies and mares in this $7,500 maiden claiming have already been defeated at the $7,500 or $5,000 level, #2 Waffle House Gang (10-1) has not. She’s only run once, finishing 10th in a $15,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway.

The winner and third-place finisher from that contest have come back to post next-out wins, so Waffle House Gang faced a nice field in her debut. Dropping into a $7,500 maiden claimer may allow the daughter of Sky Mesa to factor at double-digit odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Waffle House Gang (10-1)
• #11 Temporarilyforever (9-2)
• #3 G’day Lady (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Waffle House Gang

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $5,711 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

Do you have what it takes to select the top five finishers in the evening finale at Turfway Park? If you can pull it off, you can win a share of the $5,711 Super High 5 carryover.

The last three Turfway racing days have gone by without anyone solving the Super High 5. The $1 wager is available to play on the final race each day, and on Friday, that’s Race 10, a $5,000 maiden claimer for older horses racing one mile on Tapeta. An 11-horse field has entered, so before scratches there are 55,440 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

#9 Egyptian Quest (5-2) is the morning-line favorite, and the five-year-old gelding brings solid credentials to the table. His last three starts have come against $12,500 maiden claiming competition on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park, and he’s run respectably in all three, finishing fifth, second, and sixth while beaten no more than three lengths in any of them.

Those efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 76, 66, and 69 that stack up well against Friday’s field. Dropping down to the $5,000 level should place Egyptian Quest in the hunt for victory.

Other logical contenders include:

• #3 Full Dress Blues (8-1), fourth, sixth, and sixth in his last three starts against $7,500 maiden claiming competition running long at Turfway. Brisnet Speed ratings in the 64-69 range should make Full Dress Blues competitive while dropping in class.
• #6 Son of a Gray (12-1), fifth and seventh in his last two tries against $7,500 maiden claiming company at Turfway. He showed speed in both of those two-turn routes and may carry his speed farther at the $5,000 level.
• #11 Decatur Street (7-2), who earned an 82 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fourth by 3 1/4 lengths in a $30,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Turfway last March. He hasn’t been as sharp in two starts since returning from a layoff, but those were $50,000 and $15,000 maiden claimers. Descending to the $5,000 level for his third start back may allow Decatur Street to rebound.

By keying Egyptian Quest on top and emphasizing Full Dress Blues, Son of a Gray, and Decatur Street underneath, bettors should have a good chance to hit the Super High 5.

Good luck!