Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Santa Anita’s $100,819 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, April 4 at Santa Anita and Evangeline Downs, including horses to play in Santa Anita’s $100,819 Pick 6 carryover.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Santa Anita: Race 2: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:32 p.m. ET)

#3 Flash That Smile (9-2) has only run once. She showed pace-pressing speed in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last April before tiring to finish fifth.

Dropping into a $50,000 maiden claimer for her return from a one-year layoff can send Flash That Smile to the winner’s circle for trainer Sean McCarthy, a solid 16% winner with second-time starters. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Flash That Smile (9-2)
• #5 Miss Miche Lada (9-5)
• #1 Maniae (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Flash That Smile

Santa Anita: Race 4: $8,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:36 p.m. ET)

#6 Chasin Munny (1-1) won a $10,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Santa Anita last month with a sharp 86 Brisnet Speed rating. He was claimed out of that victory by trainer Francisco Rodriguez, who wins at a 23% rate with horses running for the first time under his care.

Dropping to the $8,000 level stamps Chasin Munny as the horse to beat in his third start of the season. #8 Wegonahavagoodtime (2-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Chasin Munny (1-1)
• #8 Wegonahavagoodtime (2-1)
• #4 Perfect D (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 6 with 8

Evangeline Downs: Race 8: Spotted Horse S. (one mile on dirt, 9:40 p.m. ET)

The recent form of #5 Sweet Alyssa (9-2) has been muddied by defeats on turf and Tapeta, a loss in a stakes against tougher competition at Laurel Park, and a defeat over the bullring oval at Delta Downs.

However, Sweet Alyssa is undefeated in three starts on dirt at Evangeline Downs, including a triumph in the one-mile Opelousas S. last summer. Returning to Evangeline for another one-mile dirt stakes might be all Sweet Alyssa needs to rebound.

At 9-2, Sweet Alyssa is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #5 Sweet Alyssa (9-2)
• #6 Non Violence (5-2)
• #1 Tryinmyheartout (9-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Sweet Alyssa

Carryover Watch

Santa Anita: Race 5: $100,819 Pick 6 carryover (6:08 p.m. ET)

On the eve of Santa Anita Derby Day, Santa Anita is hosting a 10-race card highlighted by a massive $100,819 carryover in the $2 Pick 6.

Two legs of the Pick 6 sequence appear fairly straightforward to handicap. Let’s check them out:

Race 7: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

This dirt dash drew only six entries, and the quest for first prize looks like a two-horse battle between #1 Thorne House (6-5) and #2 Elwood Blues (2-1).

Thorne House has shown fine form on turf, but he’s half a length away from being unbeaten in four starts on dirt, the surface over which he’s earned his three highest Brisnet Speed ratings. He was especially sharp in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar last summer, tracking and dueling through a hot pace before taking over to win by 6 1/2 lengths.

But Thorne House hasn’t run since July, and trainer Dean Pederson wins at a modest 9% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so it’s possible Thorne House will need a race off the layoff before returning to peak form.

That’s why Elwood Blues is worth including on Pick 6 tickets. He’s finished first and second in his last two starts at the $80,000 allowance optional claiming level, sandwiching those performances around a third-place finish to multiple Grade 1 winner The Chosen Vron in the Sam Carlos (G3). If Elwood Blues moves forward at all in his second start back from a one-year layoff, he’ll be a formidable win threat.

Race 9: $32,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

#2 Wound Up (3-2) has won four straight races, including three at Santa Anita, and he looms as a logical Pick 6 single while tackling a $32,000 allowance optional claimer rwasestricted to horses based in Northern California since Jan. 1, 2024.

Wound Up’s last two dirt starts, both at Santa Anita, have yielded a 4 1/2-length win in a $12,500 starter optional claimer and a 6 1/2-length romp in a $20,000 starter optional claimer. Neither was restricted to Northern California-based horses, and Wound Up’s runaway triumphs earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 100 and 101.

None of Wound Up’s rivals have recently earned a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating, so a typical performance from the favorite should yield a fifth straight win.

Good luck!