Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Stakes at Sunland Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Feb. 7 at Sunland Park and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in carryovers at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Turfway.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Oaklawn Park 15% Across the Board Boost: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning individual win, place, and show wagers—or combination of win, place, and show wagers—at Oaklawn Park each Friday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Oaklawn Bonus Feeder Friday to 2/8 Sam F. Davis/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $160 Turfway Feeder to 2/15 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Sunland Park: Race 7: Winsham Lad S. (one mile on dirt, 5:04 p.m. ET)

#5 Apollo Rising (7-2) has earned respectable Brisnet Speed ratings while cracking the trifecta in his last three starts against $50,000 starter allowance competition on the Kentucky circuit. Tackling an ungraded stakes at Sunland Park might actually be an easier assignment.

Jockey Orlando Mojica and trainer Robertino Diodoro have gone 17-for-57 (30%) teaming up together over the last two months, so that’s another reason to respect Apollo Rising. Let’s bet him to win and play him over 2024 Sunland Derby (G3) runner-up #6 Alotaluck (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Apollo Rising (7-2)
• #6 Alotaluck (2-1)
• #4 Blue Devil (8-5)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #5 Apollo Rising
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 6
  Total: $25

Sunland Park: Race 8: Jamison Memorial S. (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:32 p.m. ET)

#1 Let Him Be (2-1) has won 10 of his 12 starts and is 3-for-3 at Sunland Park. He regularly throws down sharp Brisnet Speed ratings and exits a win in the New Mexico Sprint S. at Zia Park.

Let Him Be’s winning tendency and hot form stamp him as the horse to beat in the Jamison Memorial. We’ll bet him to win and key him over #8 I Think I’m Here (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Let Him Be (2-1)
• #8 I Think I’m Here (3-1)
• #4 Diabolical Storm (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Let Him Be
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 8
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Josie Carroll has compiled an excellent 5-for-18 (28%) record at Turfway Park.

That’s one reason why we’re willing to bet Carroll’s first-time starter #7 Theft (8-1) in this maiden special weight for fillies and mares. Carroll wins at a 23% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, and sharp workouts at Turfway (including a couple of bullet exercises) suggest Theft has talent.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Theft (8-1)
• #4 Shore War (3-1)
• #2 Coif (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Theft

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $12,642 Pick 6 carryover (2:08 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Aqueduct is highlighted by a $12,642 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The best chance for a single might come in Race 7, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds. #5 Colloquial (6-5) is the clear-cut morning-line favorite even while returning from an eight-month layoff.

Colloquial has only run once, debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. After rating in third place, he gained five lengths through the final furlong to finish second by a nose against eventual Futurity (G3) winner Mentee, who won in the track-record time of :56.97.

For his narrow defeat, Colloquial earned a 95 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Friday’s field. Trainer George Weaver wins at a solid 19% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so we’ll count on Colloquial to produce a winning run in his three-year-old debut.

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $3,710 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

A series of upsets on Thursday at Fair Grounds ensured that no one managed to solve the $1 Pick 6, triggering a $3,710 carryover into Friday’s card.

One thing to keep in mind: the Fair Grounds dirt track appeared to have a rail bias on Thursday, with inside runners consistently performing well. If the bias continues on Friday, that could have an impact on Race 6, a $5,000 claimer for older Louisiana-breds racing one mile on dirt.

#4 Drilling Report (9-2) and #3 Knockalittlelouder (6-1) ran 1-2 in a one-mile and 70-yard contest over this track and class level on Jan. 17. On that occasion, Knockalittlelouder led for much of the race, only for the pace-tracking Drilling Report to take over in the homestretch and prevail by 1 1/2 lengths.

A rail bias on Friday could allow Knockalittlelouder to turn the tables. He’s set the pace in six of his last seven starts, and since the two horses drawn to his inside tend to race off the pace, Knockalittlelouder should have no trouble dashing to the lead and shifting to the rail. From there, he’ll be tough to run down if the track plays in his favor, so keep a close eye on the results of Friday’s first two dirt races before placing your Pick 6 tickets. If the bias is still in play, you’ll definitely want Knockalittlelouder on your tickets.

Turfway Park: Race 6: $133,384 Pick 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

The largest non-jackpot carryover up for grabs on Friday is the $133,384 prize pool in the 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Turfway Park.

Need a single to build tickets around? Look no further than #8 Maynard (2-1) in Race 5, a $5,000 starter allowance for older horses racing one mile on Tapeta.

Maynard has gone 2-for-2 competing over this track and distance since the start of the year. He employed pace-tracking tactics to win a $5,000 claimer by one length, earning an 80 Brisnet Speed rating. Then he made an early move from midpack to dominate an $8,000 claimer by 7 1/4 lengths with an 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Maynard’s Friday rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 81 in their last three starts apiece, so the stage is set for this six-year-old gelding to record a third straight win.

Good luck!