Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway's $138,972 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Dec. 20 at Turfway Park, along with horses to single in Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Turfway and Fair Grounds.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 1: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Out of the Clouds (5-1) knocked heads with some talented horses, including future Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner East Avenue, in his first two starts against maiden special weight company. He failed to factor in either, but he improved when dropping in class for a $20,000 maiden claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Horseshoe Indianapolis, tracking the pace before weakening to finish fifth by only 4 1/4 lengths.

Descending further in class for a $7,500 maiden claimer should allow Out of the Clouds to vie for victory; after all, Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen wins at a strong 23% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Out of the Clouds (5-1)
• #7 Match Five (6-1)
• #10 Best Dressed Man (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Out of the Clouds

Turfway Park: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Mezcalifornia (7-2) ran well in a $50,000 maiden claimer sprinting seven furlongs over the Churchill Downs dirt last month, rallying to finish third. The daughter of Coal Front should be formidable while dropping in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer at Turfway, especially if she improves while trying Tapeta for the first time.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Mezcalifornia.

Selections

• #5 Mezcalifornia (7-2)
• #4 Fawn Liebowitz (12-1)
• #1 Take Wings (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Mezcalifornia

Turfway Park: Race 8: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#7 Night Time (4-1) exits a victory in a six-furlong $40,000 claimer on dirt at Keeneland, but he’s arguably superior on Tapeta. He’s cracked the trifecta in eight of his nine starts at Turfway Park, which includes a victory in the 2023 Holiday Cheer S. sprinting six furlongs.

Returning to Turfway for his first start since being claimed by trainer Brittany Vanden Berg (a 21% winner with new claiming acquisitions) can put Night Time in the hunt for victory. Let’s bet him to win and play him over #6 Bromley (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Night Time (4-1)
• #6 Bromley (3-1)
• #9 Santorini (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Night Time
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $5,228 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

The $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds can be a tricky wager to hit. That was the case on Thursday—no one assembled a winning ticket, tickets with five out of six winners returned $56.90 apiece, and a carryover worth $5,228 emerged for Friday’s card.

Mathematically speaking, Friday’s Pick 6 isn’t overly complicated. If you exclude a couple of main-track-only entrants from consideration (they seem destined to scratch), the six-race sequence contains 47 horses (averaging about 7.8 per race) and 217,728 possible outcomes. Not too imposing for a Pick 6.

We can reduce the number of outcomes to consider down to 27,216 just by singling heavy morning-line favorite #8 Tales to Tell (7-5) in Race 5, a $30,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf.

Tales to Tell has hit the board in five of her six starts against maiden special weight competition, all on turf. She started off with a trio of runner-up finishes racing one mile or farther at Pimlico and Colonial Downs. Then, following a seventh and a fourth in sprints, she stretched back out for an about 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds and finished third.

Dropping in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer should make the difference for Tales to Tell and allow her to visit the winner’s circle. She’s easily the fastest entrant in Friday’s field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective—whereas none of her rivals have earned a number higher than 71, Tales to Tell has posted numbers in the 71-77 range on five occasions. Plus, trainer Michael Stidham wins at a respectable 17% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming competition.

There’s another big positive in Tales to Tell’s corner—she’s picking up red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz, who has gone 28-for-82 (34%) at Fair Grounds this meet. Ortiz has been especially dominant over the Fair Grounds turf course, going 12-for-32 (38%).

For all these reasons, Tales to Tell looms as a logical single to build Pick 6 tickets around.

Turfway Park: Race 5: $138,972 Pick 5 carryover (7:55 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Turfway is highlighted by a massive $138,972 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

A difficult sequence is on the agenda. Before scratches, there are 332,024 possible outcomes. Every race in the sequence drew at least 11 horses, and finding a single won't be easy.

That said, one possibility can be found in Race 9, a $7,500 maiden claimer taking place over 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. #12 Uptown Tom (5-2) has cracked the trifecta in three of his four starts against tougher competition on dirt and turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis, most notably running third in a $32,000 maiden claimer.

Trainer William Morey wins at a 27% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and Horseshoe Indianapolis form tends to carry over well to the Turfway Tapeta, so Uptown Tom has a strong chance to shine under Turfway's leading jockey Gerardo Corrales. He looks like as logical a single as any.

Good luck!