Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Feb. 28 at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise, along with tickets for the $1,367 Super High 5 carryover at Sunland Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: Allowance (six furlongs, 2:03 p.m. ET)

#2 J L’s Rockette (2-1) has dominated her last two starts by blowout margins. In a six-furlong allowance on Nov. 7 at Mountaineer, she led all the way to trounce her pursuers by 11 1/4 lengths. On Jan. 10, J L’s Rockette wired a six-furlong allowance at Mahoning by 11 lengths.

These efforts yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 89 and 92, the two highest numbers J L’s Rockette has posted in her career. She can extend her hot streak on Tuesday with a victory over #3 Sheisthehero (5-1), #1 Makescentstous (3-1), and #4 Reno Touch (5-2).

We’ll take advantage of the Trifecta Tuesday promotion and play J L’s Rockette on top of a trifecta.

Selections

• #2 J L’s Rockette (2-1)
• #3 Sheisthehero (5-1)
• #1 Makescentstous (3-1)

Wagers

• $7.50 Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3,4 ($30)

Turf Paradise: Race 2: $10,000-$8,500 Claiming (about 1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:25 p.m. ET)

#5 Next Journey (2-1) has been facing tougher competition than he’ll encounter on Tuesday. On Feb. 19, Next Journey tackled a $20,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile over the Turf Paradise lawn and ran second, beaten 2 1/2 lengths after leading in midstretch.

Dropping down in class can send Next Journey to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Luis Negron, a 23% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. We’ll bet Next Journey on top of a trifecta emphasizing #4 Guardsman Pass (5-2) and #6 Tour the World (3-1) underneath. Then we’ll single Next Journey to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Next Journey (2-1)
• #4 Guardsman Pass (5-2)
• #6 Tour the World (3-1)

Wagers

• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 4,6 with 1,4,6 ($20)
• $10 Double: 5 with 1
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs, 3:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Company’s Dream (7-2) has shown promise during morning training. On Feb. 3, the son of Jersey Town clocked a bullet five furlongs at Turf Paradise in :57 1/5.

Jersey Town sires a respectable 10% winners from first-time starters, and this field doesn’t appear overly deep on paper, so we’ll bet on Company’s Dream to take home top honors on debut. We’ll single him to conclude our double wager, then key him over #6 Six Shots of T (5-2) and #7 Sugar Shane (9-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Company’s Dream (7-2)
• #6 Six Shots of T (5-2)
• #7 Sugar Shane (9-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 1 with 6,7 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park, Race 9: $1,367 Super High 5 carryover (6:00 p.m. ET)

The Sunday card at Sunland Park was cancelled after only two races had been contested, which means the $1,367 Super High 5 carryover originally up for grabs in the Sunday finale is now available to chase on Tuesday.

The carryover is up for grabs in Race 9, a $7,500-$5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. The distance is five furlongs on dirt, and with nine entries, there are 15,120 possible Super High 5 outcomes. That’s not an unmanageable number, especially when you consider how Sunland’s Super High 5 carries a 50-cent minimum bet amount as opposed to the more typical $1 minimum for non-jackpot Super High 5 wagers.

We can make betting the Super High 5 even more manageable by keying #9 Eli Dancer (9-5) on top of our tickets. The four-year-old filly has been in hot form since being claimed by trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral Jr., finishing second in a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races before winning a $7,500 claimer for non-winners of two races and finishing third in a $6,250 claimer for non-winners of three races.

These efforts produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 66, 69, and 55, with the latter number possibly affected by a slow early pace. Eli Dancer is versatile in terms of running style, and Valdez-Cabral wins at a 23% rate in claiming races, so Eli Dancer should be tough to deny on Tuesday.

Key runners to use underneath include #6 Tiz My Hour (5-2) and #1 Shake Rag (8-1). Tiz My Hour has finished third and fourth in his last two starts over this track and class level, earning competitive Brisnet Speed ratings of 64 and 68. Shake Rag has misfired in her last two starts at Sunland Park, but three starts back she defeated Eli Dancer in a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races at Zia Park.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 9 with 6 with 1 with ALL with ALL ($15)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 9 with 6 with ALL with 1 with ALL ($15)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 9 with 6 with ALL with ALL with 1 ($15)
  Total: $45

Good luck!