Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Friday, May 28 at Churchill Downs, Monmouth Park, and Penn National, including a ticket for Penn National’s mandatory-payout $226,524 Super High 5 carryover.

Keeler also has a single for the $115,038 Pick 5 and $708,858 Pick 6 carryovers at Pimlico.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Churchill Downs Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Eagle Farm (Australia).

Picks and plays

Churchill Downs, Race 9: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:55 p.m. ET)

The Irish-bred #8 Bombshell (3-1) showed some promise on synthetic in her home country, but ran better than ever when she switched to turf for her U.S. debut last summer.

Overlooked at 7-1 in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, Bombshell closed gamely to finish second by a head.

Bombshell hasn’t run since, but she’s put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for her return, culminating with a half-mile in :47 2/5 over the Churchill Downs main track.

Her sire No Nay Never and half-brother Jash were both stakes winners in turf sprints, so Bombshell has the pedigree to excel at Friday’s conditions. Even better, there’s plenty of speed in this field to set up Bombshell’s late charge.

To take advantage of the Churchill Downs Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Bombshell. Then we’ll play her over #7 Six Feet Apart (8-5) in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #8 Bombshell
$5 exacta: 8 with 7
Total: $15

Penn National: Race 4: Penn Mile (G2, one mile on turf, 7:46 p.m. ET)

#3 Annex (9-5) found the competition a little too deep when he finished eighth in the American Turf (G2) at Churchill Downs four weeks ago, but the son of Constitution previously rattled off three straight victories at Gulfstream Park, including late-surging triumphs in the Palm Beach S. and Cutler Bay S.

Trained by Bill Mott, Annex will add blinkers for the Penn Mile, where he’ll face a small but speed-laden field seemingly custom-made to enhance his late rally.

Morning-line favorite #7 Outadore (8-5) is accomplished, with multiple stakes wins and a third in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), but he is undefeated in sprints and winless running long.

We'll bet Annex over Outadore in a straight exacta.

$25 exacta: 3 with 7

Monmouth Park, Race 5: Jersey Derby (one mile on turf, 7 p.m. ET)

#8 Riptide Rock (7-2) hasn’t had the best luck against allowance company on dirt this season, with a runner-up effort over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park his best effort.

But last fall, Riptide Rock unleashed a powerful performance in a six-furlong maiden special weight over the Woodbine turf course, where he burst from just off a fast pace to score by 2 1/2 lengths. The 87 Brisnet Speed rating he received indicates Riptide Rock might be best on grass, which isn’t surprising, since he is a son of five-time Grade 1-winning turf star Point of Entry.

A return to turf for the Jersey Derby can send Riptide Rock to the winner’s circle for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

We’ll bet Riptide Rock to win and play him in the exacta, over #7 It Can Be Done (5-2).

$15 to win on #8 Riptide Rock
$5 exacta: 8 with 7
Total: $20

Carryover watch

Penn National, Race 7: $226,524 Hollywood High Five carryover

It’s finally happening! After accumulating for months, the $226,524 Hollywood High Five jackpot at Penn National is slated for a mandatory dispersal among all winning bettors Friday.

The 20-cent Super High 5 wager is up for grabs in Race 7, a $4,000 claiming race for fillies and mares who haven’t won two races since Nov. 28. A field of 10 has been entered in the six-furlong sprint, which equates to 30,240 possible outcomes. Assemble a winning ticket, and you’re bound to catch a solid payday.

Some folks might be tempted to play against morning-line favorite #9 Vaunt (2-1), because she finished last in her most recent race  Feb. 17, when she was eased across the finish line.

But Vaunt attempted to stretch out over one mile and 70 yards and faced tougher, $6,250 claiming company in that race. She previously wired a pair of 5 1/2-furlong, $5,000 claiming races at Penn National and earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 75.

Vaunt has been freshened since her subpar effort, which is a positive sign, since trainer Brandon Kulp wins at a 25% rate (much higher than his overall 18% win rate) with horses who return from layoffs of 90 days or more. The drop to the $4,000 claiming level should make Vaunt tough to beat, especially with jockey Angel Rodriguez (a 21% winner at Penn National) in the saddle.

We'll play Vaunt on top of all our Hollywood High Five tickets. Underneath, we must afford respect to #4 Grace and Peace (6-1), #6 Il Mio Amore (8-1), and #8 Headed for Heaven (7-2), who have run well against $4,000 claiming company in recent starts at Penn National.

One longshot worth including is #10 Lunar Star (10-1). The Irving Velez trainee won a $5,000 claiming sprint at Penn National two starts back, when she rallied from a pace-tracking position to score by a half-length for a 69 Brisnet Speed rating.

Lunar Star subsequently finished last in a Feb. 12 allowance at Penn National, but a drop back down the class ladder can help her rebound. Velez wins at a 43% rate with horses who return from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Here’s how we’ll play the Hollywood Hi 5:

20-cent Hollywood High Five: 9 with 4,6,8,10 with 4,6,8,10 with 4,6,8,10 with ALL ($28.80)
20-cent Hollywood High Five: 9 with 4,6,8,10 with 4,6,8,10 with ALL with 4,6,8,10 ($28.80)
Total: $57.60

Pimlico, Race 5: $112,826 Late Pick 5 carryover

A $112,826 Pick 5 carryover up for grabs at Pimlico. The 50-cent wager features a 12% takeout rate, and since it’s not a jackpot-style wager, the full carryover (plus the daily pool) will be distributed among any and all winning bettors Friday.

There’s also a $708,858 jackpot carryover in the Rainbow Pick 6 (which kicks off in Race 4), though the 20-cent wager isn’t scheduled for a mandatory payout, so a unique winning ticket will be necessary to claim the giant prize.

Both the Pick 5 and the Pick 6 look competitive, so to help keep ticket costs down, we’ve identified a single.

#5 Wicked Hot (2-1) in Race 6 looks formidable for trainer Graham Motion. In her May 6 debut at Pimlico, Wicked Hot rallied boldly to finish second by a head against maiden special weight company. Now she will drop down to the $40,000 maiden claiming level, an important shift, since Motion wins at a 27% rate with first-time maiden claiming competitors.

There are a few interesting first-time starters in Friday’s field, but if Wicked Hot runs back to her debut effort, she can win for fun at a short price.