Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for May 9

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Sunday, May 9 at Belmont Park and Churchill Downs, along with thoughts on vulnerable favorites in Santa Anita’s $393,643 Pick 6 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Belmont Park: Race 8: Gold Fever S. (six furlongs, 4:51 p.m. ET)

#6 Candy Man Rocket (8-5) is the morning line favorite after winning the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis (G3) during the winter, but he’s regressed significantly in subsequent starts, fading to finish 11th in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and ninth in the Wood Memorial (G2). Cutting back to six furlongs should help Candy Man Rocket’s chances, but there’s no guarantee the shorter trip alone will turn his form around.

Instead, I’m going to take a chance with #1 Beren (7-2). A decisive winner of maiden and allowance sprints at Parx Racing, Beren faltered to fourth place when stepping up in class for the Bay Shore (G3) at Aqueduct last month. But we’ll forgive this disappointing showing since Beren stumbled severely at the start before racing up to press the pace.

With a clean break on Sunday, Beren can bounce back to peak form and vie for victory at a nice price.

$25 to win on #1 Beren

Churchill Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 1:50 p.m. ET)

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen went 5-for-7 (71%) debuting two-year-old males at Churchill Downs last spring, and his first two starters under these conditions in 2021 have finished in the money. With these stats in mind, #8 Red Run (5-2) looks formidable in this maiden sprint for juveniles.

A son of Asmussen’s 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, Red Run has fired off some quick workouts over the Keeneland main track, including a couple of half-mile gate breezes in :47 3/5 and :47 4/5. Hot jockey Ricardo Santana (a 26% winner when teaming up with Asmussen) takes the mount, setting the stage for a winning debut.

We’ll play Red Run on top of exacta and trifecta tickets using #3 Suzie (10-1), #5 Trebbiano (7-2), and #7 Woodline (7-2) underneath.

$5 Exacta: 8 with 3,5,7 ($15)
$2.50 Trifecta: 8 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7 ($15)
Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 10: Allowance (1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:45 p.m. ET)

More than an inch of rain is expected to hit Churchill Downs on Sunday, so assuming this turf allowance race for three-year-olds is transferred to the main track, #10 Ethical Judgement (3-1) will be tough to beat for hot trainer Brendan Walsh.

A four-length maiden winner racing 1 1/16 miles over the Keeneland main track last fall, Ethical Judgement recently returned from a long layoff to finish second in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race over the same track. After carving out the pace over sloppy footing, Ethical Judgement stayed on nicely to finish second, beaten only by next-out Oaklawn S. winner Fulsome.

Ethical Judgement has the pedigree to improve with maturity, so if he takes a step forward in his second start of the season, he can stroll to victory.

Capitalizing on the Churchill Downs Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Ethical Judgement and receive a refund if he settles for second or third place. Then we’ll bet him on top of a cold exacta using #11 Kinetic Sky (7-2) underneath.

$10 to win on #10 Ethical Judgement
$5 Exacta: 10 with 11
Total: $15

Carryover Watch

Santa Anita, Race 4: $393,643 Pick 6 Carryover

By far the largest carryover up for grabs on Sunday is the $393,643 Rainbow Pick 6 jackpot available at Santa Anita—it’s the only six-figure carryover on the horizon. But with just 46 horses in the sequence (averaging 7.7 per race), constructing a unique winning ticket to claim the jackpot will be difficult.

If you want to give it a go, we have a couple of vulnerable favorites for you to consider opposing. In Race 5, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claiming sprint over the turf course, #7 Speedy Justice (4-5) is an odds-on choice on the morning line. The Bob Baffert trainee has gone 2-for-2, using his abundant early speed to dominate a pair of five-furlong turf dashes at Del Mar.

But Speedy Justice has run once in 2019 and once in 2020, so he’s evidently a delicate sort. If he were training up a storm in preparation for his return, I would still be keen to back the son of Dominus, but his work tab leading up to Sunday’s race isn’t especially long or flashy. I don’t think Speedy Justice is unbeatable while returning from a 10-month break.

In Race 7, the Fran’s Valentine S. for California-breds racing one mile on turf, #5 Warren’s Showtime (6-5) might also be vulnerable. Winner of the Autumn Miss (G3) over this course and distance last October, Warren’s Showtime enters off rallying third-place efforts in the Buena Vista (G3) and Royal Heroine (G3) and appears formidable while dropping down into the state-bred ranks.

But Warren’s Showtime could only finish third in the 2020 Fran’s Valentine, so facing easier competition isn’t a guaranteed recipe for victory. In fact, #1 Leggs Galore (4-1) is just as interesting at a far better price. The daughter of Bayern boasts a 5-for-6 record in turf sprints, highlighted by a gate-to-wire romp in the six-furlong Irish O’Brien S. at Santa Anita two starts back.

Leggs Galore regressed in the Mizdirection S. last time out, fading to finish last, but she was also forced to change running styles while chasing a blazing pace. Stretching out over one mile for the first time should allow Leggs Galore to work out a more relaxed trip on the front end, potentially setting the stage for a big rebound.

Good luck!