Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $5,730 Pick 5 carryover at Turf Paradise

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Feb. 24 at Turf Paradise and Oaklawn Park, including a single for Turf Paradise’s $5,730 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x rewards points on all bets at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Monday through Wednesday from Feb. 17 through March 26.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Oaklawn Feeder to 3/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 3:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Royal Integrity (5-1) is an unraced filly conditioned by hot trainer R. Kory Owens, who wins at a powerful 28% rate with first-time starters. A couple of bullet five-furlong workouts at Turf Paradise suggest Royal Integrity has the speed and talent to win on debut.

At 5-1, a win bet is in order. We’ll also bet Royal Integrity over #6 Mocktails Anyone (3-1) in the exacta. Mocktails Anyone has finished second in seven of her 11 starts.

Selections

• #1 Royal Integrity (5-1)
• #6 Mocktails Anyone (3-1)
• #7 Denada (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Royal Integrity
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $25

Oaklawn Park: Race 6: $200,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:13 p.m. ET)

#7 Big Boat (8-5) is the morning-line favorite after finishing second to next-out Southwest (G3) runner-up Sandman in a $125,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile at Oaklawn. But Big Boat benefited from racing up front through modest pace fractions.

Two starts back, Big Boat settled behind a quick pace in a seven-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. He could only close mildly to finish third, half a length behind runner-up #4 Heavenville (5-1).

Heavenville exits a pacesetting half-length defeat in a $125,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile at Oaklawn. He’s adding Lasix for his three-year-old debut and has every chance to outrun his 5-1 odds on the front end.

Let’s bet on Heavenville to upset Big Boat.

Selections

• #4 Heavenville (5-1)
• #7 Big Boat (8-5)
• #8 R Heisman (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Heavenville
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $25

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Big Beauty (2-1) has won two straight races at Turf Paradise. He took an allowance optional claimer by 2 3/4 lengths with an 84 Brisnet Speed rating, then improved to an 87 Brisnet Speed rating when prevailing by one length in a starter optional claimer.

None of Big Beauty’s Monday rivals have recently posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 85, and the one who posted the 85—#5 Twelve Stars (5-1)—did so while finishing third to Big Beauty in the above-mentioned starter optional claimer.

Big Beauty appears poised to record a third straight win for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Karlo Lopez and Justin Evans. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Big Beauty (2-1)
• #5 Twelve Stars (5-1)
• #6 Fast Giselle (7-2)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #2 Big Beauty

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise: Race 5: $5,730 Pick 5 carryover (4:53 p.m. ET)

No one hit the Pick 5 on Saturday at Turf Paradise. As a result, the 50-cent wager includes a non-jackpot $5,730 carryover for Monday’s card.

Constructing a winning ticket on a modest budget should be a manageable task. The Pick 5 sequence contains 40 horses (averaging eight per race) and 30,870 possible outcomes before scratches. Those are reasonable numbers for a Pick 5

Three of the five races have drawn only seven horses apiece. One of those seven-horse fields can be found in Race 8, a $25,000 allowance optional claimer for older horses sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. #3 Truth Seeker (3-1), who has won multiple stakes, is the slight morning-line favorite. But we view #7 Bearings (7-2) as the horse to beat and recommend him as a Pick 5 single.

Bearings enters in red-hot form for trainer Justin Evans, a 27% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. On Jan. 9, Bearings won a one-mile $25,000 allowance optional claimer by two lengths. On Feb. 5, he cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs over the same class level and scored by 1 3/4 lengths. Both of those wins yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 89.

Sticking to the same class level should allow Bearings to score a third straight win. None of his Monday rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 88 in the last six months. That includes Truth Seeker, whose last five Brisnet Speed ratings are 87, 81, 86, 88, and 81—respectable, but not quite as fast as Bearings.

By singling Bearings in the Pick 5, we can reduce the number of Pick 5 possibilities to consider from 30,870 down to 4,410. That’s a great step toward assembling competitive yet budget-friendly tickets.

Good luck!