Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Fair Grounds $7,547 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, March 3 at Turf Paradise and Fair Grounds, including a single for the $7,547 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x rewards points on all bets at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Monday through Wednesday from Feb. 17 through March 26.
• 8x Points at Fair Grounds: Receive 8x reward points on all bets at Fair Grounds (excluding show bets) each racing day from March 1 through March 9.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/8 Tampa Bay Derby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 1: $5,000 Starter Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Myfriendsawinner (7-2) misfired when returning from a long layoff in a $15,000 allowance optional claimer at Delta Downs last month, finishing eighth. But trainer Jonas Gibson wins at a lofty 30% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, and dropping into a $5,000 starter allowance should allow Myfriendsawinner to vie for victory under red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz.

Let’s bet Myfriendsawinner over #6 Won Day (8-5) in the exacta, then single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Myfriendsawinner (7-2)
• #6 Won Day (8-5)
• #4 Sienna Breeze (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 6
• $10 Double: 5 with 4
  Total: $20

Fair Grounds: Race 2: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:15 p.m. ET)

#4 Mighty Eriu (2-1) showed some promise in Europe last year, most notably finishing second in the Queen Mary (G2) at Royal Ascot.

Dropping in class for a $50,000 maiden optional claimer should make Mighty Eriu tough to beat in her North American debut. Trainer Brendan Walsh wins at a 26% rate with shippers to the U.S., and a fast half-mile workout over the Palm Meadows turf course in :46 3/5 suggests Mighty Eriu is sitting on a strong effort.

We’ll single Mighty Eriu to conclude our double wager, then place a large win bet for good measure.

Selections

• #4 Mighty Eriu (2-1)
• #7 Betty’s Dance (3-1)
• #2 Don’t Blink (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Mighty Eriu

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $4,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on dirt, 5:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Siberian Slew (10-1) is an intriguing longshot. He failed to factor in his two most recent starts against tougher competition at Pleasanton last November. But in his October debut at Fresno, he finished a respectable fourth in a $16,000 maiden claimer.

Siberian Slew has turned in sharp workouts at Turf Paradise and is eligible to outrun expectations while tackling a $4,500 maiden claimer in his first start for high-percentage trainer Justin Evans. The presence of hot jockey Karlo Lopez adds to the appeal.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Siberian Slew (10-1)
• #1 Doradus (2-1)
• #4 Vinniebob (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Siberian Slew

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $7,547 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

The $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds proved unsolvable on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, so there’s a triple carryover worth $7,547 up for grabs during Monday’s card.

A tricky sequence is on the agenda. The six races have drawn a total of 55 horses (averaging about 9.2 per race), and only one of those is an also-eligible entrant. Before scratches, there are 518,400 possible Pick 6 outcomes.

Surprisingly, one of the best opportunities for a single can be found in Race 7, which features the largest field in the Pick 6: 11 horses in the main body of the field plus one also-eligible.

Race 7 is a maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. Morning-line favorite #5 Pretty Prairie (7-2) warrants respect after hitting the board in all four of her tries over this class level, including three at Fair Grounds. But she’s competed exclusively on dirt, and Brisnet sire and dam statistics suggest switching to turf is a question mark for Pretty Prairie. For example, she’s a daughter of Cloud Computing, who sires only 5% winners from first-time turf starters.

That’s why we feel confident recommending #2 Smittys Cheetah (4-1) as a single. After opening her career with a couple of disappointing efforts on dirt, Smittys Cheetah switched to turf for her third start. Wearing blinkers for the first time, Smittys Cheetah dueled for the lead in a maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred three-year-old fillies before battling on to finish second by a neck.

That effort yielded a 76 Brisnet Speed rating, six points higher than the par winning number for Monday’s conditions. Smittys Cheetah pulled three lengths clear of the third-place finisher, so any way you slice it she ran strongly in her grass debut.

Smittys Cheetah is stepping up against older rivals on Monday, but that shouldn’t be an issue. This field doesn’t look overly deep on paper, and Smittys Cheetah has every chance to secure a favorable ground-saving trip on the front end while breaking from post 2. Throw in the fact she’s a daughter of Half Ours (who sires a respectable 16% winners on turf), and Smittys Cheetah is a compelling choice to single.

Good luck!