Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $39,292 Pick 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, April 7 at Keeneland, including analysis of the $39,292 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Keeneland 25% Double Down: Hit two daily doubles on Monday at Keeneland to receive a 25% bonus (maximum $25 for the day) on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Keeneland.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $320 Keeneland Bonus Feeder to 4/8 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

During the 2024 Keeneland spring meet, trainer Wesley Ward went 7-for-11 (64%) debuting juveniles, which included a 6-for-9 (67%) record on dirt.

Ward can pick up a two-year-old winner early in the 2025 meet with #8 Pinky Finger (7-5). The daughter of talented sprinter Army Mule (who sires 17% winners from first-time starters) enters off fast workouts and looks ready to roll on debut.

Let’s try to double our money with a $50 win bet.

Selections

• #8 Pinky Finger (7-5)
• #10 Red Speedo (8-1)
• #3 Monster (4-1)

Wagers

• $50 to win on #8 Pinky Finger

Keeneland: Race 3: $125,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:04 p.m. ET)

#2 Velvet Vortex (5-2) ran well when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds two months ago. She pressed a hot pace before taking over to win by three-quarters of a length with a strong 95 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Brad Cox strikes at a 29% rate with last-out maiden winners, so let’s bet Velvet Vortex to win and play her over Notebook S. winner #3 Shoot It True (9-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Velvet Vortex (5-2)
• #3 Shoot It True (9-5)
• #8 Lynn’s Milky Way (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Velvet Vortex
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:08 p.m. ET)

#11 Unwavering Trust (5-2) put forth a good try when finishing second on debut in a Feb. 15 maiden special weight sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds. Racing over a track biased toward inside runners, Unwavering Trust tracked the pace outside of rivals before advancing to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths.

Unwavering Trust pulled 9 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned an 87 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Monday’s field. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters, and Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat retains the mount, so Unwavering Trust is a logical choice to shine at Keeneland.

#9 Kapoor (7-2) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #11 Unwavering Trust (5-2)
• #9 Kapoor (7-2)
• #6 Midnight Myth (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #11 Unwavering Trust
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 9
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $39,292 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

The Keeneland spring meet wasted no time tossing up a carryover for bettors to pursue. After going unsolved during Sunday’s opening-day card, the $1 Pick 6 boasts a $39,292 carryover for Monday.

Handicapping the sequence in advance is tricky. Keeneland was off the turf on Sunday, and that could be the case again on Monday. Since three of the six Pick 6 legs are turf races, there’s a good chance many horses will scratch from the Pick 6 sequence.

Fortunately, the three dirt legs in the sequence look fairly straightforward to handicap. The first is Race 5, the maiden special weight in which we’ve outlined our case for #11 Unwavering Trust (5-2) as the likeliest winner. Pick 6 bettors with plenty of capital to invest might want to include #9 Kapoor (7-2) as backup; the Godolphin homebred exits a decent third-place finish in her debut at Gulfstream Park and has room for improvement. But Unwavering Trust is the filly to beat, and budget-conscious bettors should consider her as a possible Pick 6 single.

Another single possibility can be found in Race 7, the Lafayette S. for three-year-old dashing seven furlongs on dirt.

Morning-line favorite #2 Colloquial (6-5) has run two giant races to start his career. In his June 15 debut sprinting five furlongs over the Aqueduct main track, he rallied from third place to finish second by a nose against future Futurity (G3) winner Mentee, who won in track-record time. Then, following eight months on the sidelines, Colloquial rallied to smash a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct by seven lengths over a next-out winner.

That runaway win earned an epic 109 Brisnet Speed rating, by far the highest number in the Lafayette field. None of his seven rivals have earned a rating higher than 99.

There should be plenty of pace to set up Colloquial’s typical rally, so any way you slice it he’s a logical Pick 6 single.

The final dirt race on the card is Race 9, the Ashland (G1), a high-profile Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier.

The 1 1/16-mile contest for three-year-old fillies has drawn several live contenders. Last year’s Demoiselle (G2) winner #4 Muhimma is favored, but after opening her sophomore season with a third in the Honeybee (G3), she doesn’t look unbeatable. Martha Washington S. winner #6 Take Charge Milady (8-1) and Santa Ysabel (G3) runner-up #3 Supa Speed (4-1) are others we recommend including on Pick 6 tickets.

Good luck!