Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mendelssohns Music should like turf

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, April 28 at Will Rogers Downs, Thistledown, and Turf Paradise, including a trifecta.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Will Rogers Downs: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (one mile on dirt, 2:15 p.m. ET)

#7 Race Day Rebal (7-5) enters in strong form. He’s finished first, second, and second in his last three starts racing one mile against $5,000 claiming competition at Will Rogers Downs. His two defeats came by a neck and a nose, and he’s earned improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 76, 85, and 88.

None of Race Day Rebal’s Monday rivals have recently earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 81, so a typical performance ought to send Race Day Rebal to the winner’s circle.

#4 Desoto’s War (4-1) and #5 United Patriot (7-2) can battle to complete the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #7 Race Day Rebal (7-5)
• #4 Desoto’s War (4-1)
• #5 United Patriot (7-2)

Wagers

• $11 Exacta: 7 with 4,5 ($22)
• $4 Trifecta: 7 with 4,5 with 4,5 ($8)
  Total: $30

Thistledown: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 2:50 p.m. ET)

Three-year-old filly #2 Belle Bottoms (8-5) has tactical speed and exits a third-place finish in the Southern Park S. at Mahoning Valley. She’s a logical win contender in her first try against older horses.

However, #4 Amy’s Star (5-2) warrants respect too. The four-year-old filly likewise has speed and has finished second and third in her last two starts sprinting six furlongs over this class level at Mahoning Valley.

Belle Bottoms and Amy’s Star have a strong chance to finish 1-2 in one order or the other, so we’ll play exacta tickets accordingly.

Selections

• #2 Belle Bottoms (8-5)
• #4 Amy’s Star (5-2)
• #6 Goosebumps (5-1)

Wagers

• $17 Exacta: 2 with 4
• $13 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 9: $8,500 Maiden Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 8:05 p.m. ET)

Even though #1 Mendelssohns Music (5-2) is a maiden, his last two starts have come against winners in $16,000 claimers sprinting on dirt at Santa Anita. He finished fourth and seventh in those contests.

Dropping sharply in class for an $8,500 maiden claimer at Turf Paradise should help Mendelssohns Music visit the winner’s circle. Switching to turf can help too—he’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Mendelssohn out of Harbingerofthings, the dam of the graded stakes-winning turf horses Tell Your Daddy and Dynadrive.

Let’s bet Mendelssohns Music to win, then add in an exacta using fellow class dropper #6 Dawkins (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #1 Mendelssohns Music (5-2)
• #6 Dawkins (9-2)
• #3 Arromax (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Mendelssohns Music
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $30

Good luck!