Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Three Fair Grounds Pick 6 singles

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Jan. 20 at Santa Anita and Fair Grounds, including three singles for the $2,987 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 2/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Santa Anita: Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on turf, 3:00 p.m. ET)

#10 Mr. Leasure (7-2) ran second in a six-furlong dirt sprint over this class level last April. He was claimed out of that contest by Tim Yakteen, who gave the gelded son of Distorted Humor a long rest before returning him to serious training in November.

Mr. Leasure’s pedigree offers potential for success while switching to turf, and hot jockey Flavien Prat (a 25% winner at Santa Anita this meet) is named to ride, so let’s try betting Mr. Leasure to win and keying him over #4 Running Spartan (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #10 Mr. Leasure (7-2)
• #4 Running Spartan (5-2)
• #7 Crazy Cavalier (3-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #10 Mr. Leasure
• $7 Exacta: 10 with 4
  Total: $25

Fair Grounds: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:15 p.m. ET)

Whether this race stays on turf or gets transferred to dirt, #11 Foligno (7-2) is a strong win threat.

Foligno ran strongly when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Fair Grounds turf course, closing 3 1/2 lengths through the final furlong to finish second by a nose against next-out $100,000 allowance optional claiming winner Star’s Image.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters, and at a 30% rate with horses running long for the first time, so those are two big positives in Foligno’s favor. As a son of Nyquist, Foligno has the pedigree to handle dirt if necessary, so let’s bet him to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #11 Foligno (7-2)
• #7 So Sandy (9-2)
• #5 Reagan’s Wit (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #11 Foligno
• $15 Double: 11 with 4
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Admiral Dennis (9-5) misfired after stumbling at the start of the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds last month, finishing fourth. He’d previously trounced a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 3 1/2 lengths with a strong 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

We’ll count on Admiral Dennis to rebound while dropping in class under hot jockey Florent Geroux, a 29% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. Let’s single him to conclude our double wager, then add in a large win bet.

Selections

• #4 Admiral Dennis (9-5)
• #3 Authentic Gallop (9-2)
• #5 Sight (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Admiral Dennis

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $2,987 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

If you want to pursue Monday’s $2,987 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds, we have good news. The $1 wager should be winnable on a modest budget.

There are two reasons for this. One, rain has forced Fair Grounds turf races to switch from turf to dirt in recent days, leading to many scratches. If Fair Grounds is off the turf again on Monday, expect field sizes for the three scheduled grass races in the Pick 6 to shrink meaningfully.

Secondly, three of the races feature standout favorites who look trustworthy as Pick 6 singles, which will dramatically reduce the complexity and cost of constructing tickets.

Our three recommended singles are:

Race 5: #4 Zardun (5-2)

This six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds drew a large field, but we’re confident Zardun will deliver victory for trainer Cox, who has gone 12-for-34 (35%) saddling first-time starters over the Fair Grounds dirt since 2023.

Zardun has turned in a bevy of bullet workouts over the slow Payson Park training track, including half a mile in :48 2/5 on Jan. 6. These strong works suggest Zardun has meaningful talent. He’s slated to be ridden by hot jockey Geroux (a 29% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), so we’re willing to bet Zardun is something special and single him in the Pick 6.

Race 6: #11 Foligno (7-2)

Foligno might be our riskiest single since Race 6—as described previously—is a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight slated to take place on turf, and there’s a chance it will be switched to dirt, changing the complexion of the field. However, we’re confident Foligno will handle either surface, and trainer stats suggest he’ll improve while stretching out in distance for his second start, hence our support.

Race 7: #4 Admiral Dennis (9-5)

Some bettors may hesitate to single Admiral Dennis in the Pick 6 since he’s exiting a subpar showing in the Gun Runner. But the 91 Brisnet Speed rating Admiral Dennis posted in his maiden win is the highest number belonging to any horse in this 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer by a full 10 points, so any sort of rebound from Admiral Dennis should send him to the winner’s circle. It helps that he’ll be racing on Lasix for the first time, a 34% winning move for Cox.

Good luck!