Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Ticket for $3,201 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Dec. 30 at Parx Racing and Turf Paradise, including a ticket for Turf Paradise’s $3,201 Pick 5 carryover.

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• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January, excluding Dec. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Parx Racing: Race 9: Parx Future Stars S. (seven furlongs on dirt, 3:41 p.m. ET)

#7 Global Steve (4-1) impressed when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Parx, rating just off the pace before seizing command to dominate by 6 1/2 lengths. That runaway win yielded a sharp 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Robert Reid Jr. strikes at a 20% rate with last-out maiden winners, and red-hot jockey Mychel Sanchez is named to ride, so let’s bet Global Steve to win.

Selections

• #7 Global Steve (4-1)
• #10 Crab Daddy (7-2)
• #3 Baby Dukes (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #7 Global Steve

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $8,500 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:20 p.m. ET)

#7 Ready to Storm (8-5) is a logical favorite; last time out, he unleashed a giant rally to finish second by a head over this track, distance, and class level, earning a sharp 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

But don’t underestimate #4 Nation of Faith (4-1). He misfired in his latest start on turf, but he’d previously won a $5,000 claimer at Emerald Downs and finished second in a $10,000 claimer at Turf Paradise, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 80.

Let’s box Ready to Storm and Nation of Faith in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Nation of Faith (4-1)
• #7 Ready to Storm (8-5)
• #1 Our Bold Prince (5-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: box 4,7 ($20)

Turf Paradise: Race 7: $12,500 Starter Allowance (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#5 Lord Sheldon (3-1) exits a victory in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile at Turf Paradise, an effort which yielded a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed rating. He’s eligible to win right back for hot trainer Jose Silva Jr., a 37% winner at Turf Paradise this meet.

But #10 Zimba Warrior (6-1), formerly based in Southern California, is a possible upset threat in his first start for high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro. Zimba Warrior has finished third in his last two starts against $16,000 claiming competition at Santa Anita and Los Alamitos; the Santa Anita effort yielded an 87 Brisnet Speed rating.

An exacta box is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #5 Lord Sheldon (3-1)
• #10 Zimba Warrior (6-1)
• #9 House of Lords (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: box 5,10 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise, Race 5: $3,201 Pick 5 carryover (3:50 p.m. ET)

The penultimate day of 2024 racing at Turf Paradise is highlighted by a $3,201 carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5.

A competitive sequence is on the agenda. The five races have drawn a total of 49 horses (averaging 9.8 per race), which works out to 80,640 possible Pick 5 outcomes.

Let’s examine the Pick 5 in race-by-race fashion and assemble a ticket for under $100:

Race 5: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

#2 Jin Tong (5-2) is a logical morning-line favorite, but after six straight runner-up finishes, we won’t want to rely too heavily on him to win. Southern California shipper #5 Keen Heir (5-1), the stakes-placed #7 Dialed in to Win (6-1), and flashy Evangeline Downs allowance winner #8 B Minor (7-2) are others we’ll include.

Race 6: $8,500 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

We’ve already identified #4 Nation of Faith (4-1) and #7 Ready to Storm (8-5) as our top two choices in this claiming sprint, and we’ll use them both in the Pick 5.

Race 7: $12,500 Starter Allowance (1 1/16 miles on dirt)

As outlined previously, we’re riding the #5 Lord Sheldon (3-1) and #10 Zimba Warrior (6-1) bandwagons in the middle leg of the Pick 5. One or the other ought to prevail.

Race 8: $12,500 Starter Allowance (six furlongs on dirt)

#8 Brookys Gal (5-2) has won four straight races in Northern California, steadily ascending the class ladder through $8,000, $16,000, and $25,000 claimers. But she’s been beating fellow three-year-olds and is facing older rivals at Turf Paradise, so we’ll include #3 Anybody’s Choice (10-1) and #9 Twelve Stars (4-1) for good measure.

Race 9: $12,500 Starter Allowance (six furlongs on dirt)

There are plenty of viable contenders in the finale. We’ll use former Southern California competitor #7 Departure (5-1), red-hot Northern California raider #8 Come Out Fighting (5-2), and the recent Turf Paradise winners #9 Holden the Lute (7-2) and #10 Strength of Autism (12-1).

Pick 5 Ticket

• 50-cent Pick 5: 2,5,7,8 with 4,7 with 5,10 with 3,8,9 with 7,8,9,10 ($96)

Good luck!