Oaklawn: How to bet the 2024 Poinsettia Stakes

A full field of 12 fillies and mares will run 5 1/2 panels in Saturday’s feature at Oaklawn Park, the $150,000 Poinsettia S. #12 Royal Spa (4-1) draws widest in the field, but the Rodolphe Brisset trainee has arguably the best turn of foot in the group and seems poised for a big run despite being assigned the outer starting slot. 

Poinsettia Wagers

$15 win and place #12 Royal Spa ($30)
$2 exacta key box 12 with 1,2,7 ($12)

Poinsettia Stakes Analysis 2024

By Violence, the four-year-old has performed well in three of her four attempts on the grounds and has run a pair of good ones off the layoff leading up to Saturday. The homebred cuts back in distance following a clear second behind a fine filly in the Chilukki S. (G3) at Churchill most recently, and I like her chances third off the bench if she fires her best shot with Christian Torres in the silks. 

Each of the pair of contenders on the inside is intriguing to me. #1 Fibber (9-2), who aced the Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park in August, didn’t fire last time at Mahoning Valley but was in fine form prior to that outing. The Chris Hartman trainee will have to be good in her first run with her elders, but I expect her to be up to the task beneath Rafael Bejarano. 

#2 Holly Dolly (12-1) has been first or second in 10 of her 11 lifetime races to date and gets a nice class test in the affair. The dark bay daughter of Brody’s Cause has gone clear in her five straight wins leading up to this heat, and she could sit a fine voyage tucked in behind the pace to the top of the lane. Regular pilot Iram Diego has the assignment. 

The Saffie Joseph-trained #7 Spirit Wind (8-5) is the clear one to beat in the affair, but I think that she might be vulnerable at a short price. By Bahamian Squall, the five-year-old earned her top win in the Honorable Miss (G2) at Saratoga in the summer, but her best results have come when she clears early and I don’t envision her being on top from the break on Saturday. The Florida-bred mare has won from off the pace in the past, but I will not use her on top with the blinkers coming off in this endeavor. She remains a top-three contender, nonetheless, with Fernando Jara taking the reins.