Oaklawn Park: The best win bets to play in the Razorback and Dixie Belle

It’s easy to get caught up in exotic wagers, chasing the promise of big payoffs from small investments. But sometimes straightforward win bets can be just as appealing.

Cashing a win bet requires nothing more than picking a single winner. You don’t have to worry about picking multiple winners in a row or determining which horses will finish second, third, and fourth.

The upcoming weekend cards at Oaklawn Park provide a perfect opportunity to place a couple $25 win bets. Six stakes races are on the agenda, and two — one Saturday, one Sunday — appear particularly competitive.

With a bit of luck, we can turn our $50 investment into $200 or even $300, with no complicated exotics required!

Saturday, Race 7: Razorback H. (G3, 1 1/16 miles, 4:20 p.m. ET)

The majority of the entrants in this handicap for older horses are established Grade 2/Grade 3 types, seemingly without much upside for improvement. A notable exception is #7 Mystic Guide (9-5), a lightly raced four-year-old with just six starts under his belt.

A beautifully bred son of Ghostzapper, out of the five-time Grade 1-winning mare Music Note, Mystic Guide showed steady improvement over the course of his three-year-old season. A stretch-running winner of the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy (G2), Mystic Guide capped off 2020 with a gutsy effort in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), where he tracked the pace and finished second by less than a length.

The cut back to 1 1/16 miles is a question mark for Mystic Guide, but there isn’t much pace in the Razorback field. Mystic Guide should get a comfortable trip stalking a modest tempo, which minimizes the challenge of negotiating a shorter trip.

Mystic Guide has been training up a storm in preparation for his 2021 debut and has cranked out one sharp workout after another over the Fair Grounds main track. If he takes a step forward in his first start as a four-year-old — and there’s no reason to think he won’t — his rivals are likely running for second place.

$25 to win on #7 Mystic Guide

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Sunday, Race 6: Dixie Belle S. (Six furlongs, 4:39 p.m. ET)

There are several speedy fillies entered in this competitive sprint for sophomores, including the undefeated #5 Abrogate (5-2), who showed determination to win an allowance over this track and distance Jan. 24.

But the “speed of the speed” in the Dixie Belle field is surely #8 Windmill (7-2). Sold for $330,000 as a yearling, the Larry Jones-trained filly turned in an eye-catching debut at Oaklawn last month. After she roared to the front, with fast splits of :21.97 and :45.89, Windmill sprinted the final two furlongs in :12.24 and :12.41 to win by four lengths, in a snappy 1:10.54.

This effort produced a 94 Brisnet Speed rating (the highest figure in the Dixie Belle field), plus Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings of 100. A repeat of that performance would make Windmill formidable, yet it’s possible the daughter of Street Sense will improve Sunday. Jones wins at a 26% rate with last-out maiden winners.

Throw in the fact that Windmill will carry just 115 pounds, four fewer than Abrogate, and I think we’ve found our play for the Dixie Belle.

$25 to win on #8 Windmill

Good luck!