Plays for the $800 Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier tournament

April 26th, 2025

Saturday is opening day of the Churchill Downs spring meet, and there are a couple of excellent reasons to play the 10-race card.

First and foremost, there’s the $800 Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier tournament on TwinSpires.com. Bet your entire $400 bankroll across at least five races at Churchill Downs (minimum $40 per race) to climb the leaderboard and compete for one of at least three entries into the May 3 $5,000 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge (KDBC) tournament.

There’s also a Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back promotion on TwinSpires allowing you to receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race. Tournament wagers count towards this promotion.

The feature event on the card is Race 9, the $200,000 Roxelana S. for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. The slight morning-line favorite is #2 Sandy Bottom, (5-2), last seen finishing a pacesetting third in the six-furlong Carousel S. at Oaklawn Park. Dropping in class for Saturday’s contest is a positive, but the 88 Brisnet Speed rating Sandy Bottom posted at Oaklawn doesn’t stand out at Churchill Downs.

RELATED: Betting with, and against, Sandy Bottom in the Roxelana Stakes

We recommend opposing Sandy Bottom with #6 Harbor Springs (3-1), who enters in red-hot form. She rallied to dominate a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs last fall by 5 1/4 lengths, earning a 92 Brisnet Speed rating. Then in February, she tracked the pace on her way to winning a six-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds with a 93 Brisnet Speed rating. The form of the latter win was flattered when runner-up Easy Red returned to win an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland.

A bullet half-mile workout in :46 4/5 at Churchill Downs last week suggests Harbor Springs is sitting on a third straight victory. If her 3-1 morning-line odds hold up, tournament players should consider placing a hefty win bet on Harbor Springs:

  • Race 9: $40 to win on #6 Harbor Springs

In addition to (or in place of) a win bet, we suggest singling Harbor Springs to start double wagers heading into Race 10, a $100,000 maiden claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt.

#3 Evan On Earth (7-5) is the heavy morning-line favorite after cracking the trifecta in four of his six starts against maiden special weight competition. He was beaten only a nose when last seen in a Nov. 22 sprint at Churchill Downs and should be formidable while dropping in class for trainer Greg Foley, a 21% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

However, first-time starter #2 Outdoor Cat (12-1) is also worth using after capping off a solid work tab with a bullet half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 4/5.

  • Race 9: $32 Double: 6 with 3
  • Race 9: $8 Double: 6 with 2

Good luck!

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