Santa Anita: Analyzing the $86,735 Pick 6 carryover

No one solved the $2 Pick 6 on Saturday at Santa Anita. Double-digit upsets early in the sequence, coupled with the defeats of two odds-on favorites later on, triggered an $86,735 carryover into Sunday’s card.

Sunday’s Pick 6 gets underway in Race 6, the $100,000 Santa Ysabel (G3) for three-year-old fillies. The 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier has drawn a compact six-horse field including #4 Cipriani (5-2), runner-up in the Las Virgenes (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks last month.

Cipriani is the top choice of John Mucciolo of TwinSpires, but in Mucciolo’s analysis of the Santa Ysabel, one of his recommended wagers is an exacta boxing Cipriani with #3 Supa Speed (2-1). Supa Speed has shown promise against stakes competition on turf and is eligible to fire a strong shot in her dirt debut for trainer John Sadler, who wins at a powerful 27% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt. Pick 6 bettors may wish to use Cipriani and Supa Speed in equal strength.

The best chance for a Pick 6 single can be found in Race 10, a six-furlong $16,000 claimer for older horses who have never won two races. The eight-horse field looks ripe for conquest by morning-line favorite #8 Billy Joe Shaver (9-5).

Billy Joe Shaver has only run twice on turf. He failed to fire at all in his debut, finishing last in a maiden special weight for California-breds. But last time out—after a series of productive tries on dirt—Billy Joe Shaver returned to grass and ran strongly in a six-furlong $25,000 claimer for non-winners of two races. He pressed the pace every step of the way and finished second by half a length, earning a career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping down to the $16,000 level should make Billy Joe Shaver tough to beat. None of his rivals have recently posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 82. Any improvement from Billy Joe Shaver in his third start back from a layoff (which is a 27% winning angle for trainer Steven Miyadi) can send this gray four-year-old to the winner’s circle at a short price.

Good luck!