Saturday picks: KDBC Qualifier tournament, Fair Grounds Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares bets and horses to play in a TwinSpires tournament and a Pick 6 carryover on Saturday.

$500 Virginia Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

You can qualify to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge (KDBC) if you finish high enough in the $500 Virginia Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier tournament on TwinSpires.com.

The basics are simple: bet your entire $250 bankroll across at least eight races at Colonial Downs and/or Oaklawn Park (minimum $15 per race) to climb the leaderboard.

High-percentage trainer Brad Cox is expected to start four horses at Colonial on Saturday, and all of them have strong win chances.

In Race 4, a six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies, Cox trains morning-line favorite #2 Keepsake (1-1). Runner-up in her first three starts at Keeneland, Churchill Downs, and Gulfstream Park, Keepsake may find the competition a bit easier at Colonial, where she’s facing only five rivals.

We suggest tournament players single Keepsake to start a double wager ending with #1 Lion of Justice (3-2) in Race 5, a one-mile maiden special weight for three-year-olds. Cox trains Lion of Justice, a $1.1 million yearling acquisition who enters off a sharp work tab at Payson Park. Consider betting Lion of Justice on top of Southern California shipper #4 Dettori (6-5) in a cold exacta.

• Race 4, $15 Double: 2 with 1
• Race 5, $15 Exacta: 1 with 4

Also, use Lion of Justice to start another double wager ending with Cox’s #4 Verifire (5-2) in Race 6, a six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds. Purchased for $1 million last year, Verifire has put together a lengthy work tab at Payson Park and can spring a mild surprise against morning-line favorite #2 Hitchcock (6-5), who is returning from a six-month layoff.

• Race 5, $15 Double: 1 with 4

Cox’s final expected starter at Colonial is #7 Rapture (5-1) in Race 9, the $500,000 Virginia Derby, a 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier. Rapture exits a 6 1/2-length maiden win at Oaklawn Park and has the pedigree to shine over the Virginia Derby distance. We suggest betting him over Sunland Park Derby winner #6 Getaway Car (9-5) and Risen Star (G2) fifth-place finisher #3 American Promise (12-1) in a trifecta.

• Race 9, $7.50 Trifecta: 7 with 3,6 ($15)

Fair Grounds $9,683 Pick 6 carryover

The last four race cards at Fair Grounds have gone by without anyone hitting the $1 Pick 6, triggering a $9,683 quadruple carryover into Saturday’s card.

The best chance for a single can be found in Race 8, a maiden special weight for three-year-olds racing about one mile on turf. #6 Sabertooth (3-1) might be 0-for-8, but he’s cracked the trifecta seven times, including when narrowly beaten in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) and Zuma Beach (G3).

Four of Sabertooth’s starts have come against stakes competition, so tackling a maiden special weight at Fair Grounds in his first start for trainer Brittany Russell (a 32% winner with horses running for the first time under her care) should make Sabertooth a formidable win threat.

Good luck!