Sunday picks: Lucrative carryovers at Tampa, Fair Grounds, Santa Anita

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson analyzes a trio of Sunday carryovers at Tampa Bay Downs, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 2: $11,287 Super High 5 carryover (1:17 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers in Sunday’s second race at Tampa Bay Downs, you can win a share of an $11,287 Super High 5 carryover.

Race 2 is a $25,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies dashing 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and morning-line favorite #6 Securitylightning (9-5) looks formidable. She was beaten only a neck when racing seven furlongs over this track and class level on Feb. 9. Furthermore, in December, she finished second by one length after setting the pace in a one-mile and 40-yard $32,000 maiden claimer at Tampa.

Securitylightning is the fastest entrant in Sunday’s field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective and is also the only pace player on paper. If she shakes loose on an uncontested lead while cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs, she may prove impossible to catch. We recommend keying her on top in the Super High 5.

Underneath, we’ll emphasize #1 Madam Prosecutor (7-2), #4 Atomic Habits (9-2), and #5 Mt. d’Oro (3-1).

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5,7 with 1,4,5,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,7 ($54)

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $9,683 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

The Saturday card at Fair Grounds was canceled due to high winds and electrical issues, so the $9,683 Pick 6 carryover originally up for grabs on Saturday is moving to Sunday’s card.

Pick 6 bettors seeking a single to build tickets around should check out #4 Modo (5-2) in Race 6, a $100,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs over the main track.

Modo owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in the field. She posted an 86 when wiring a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park by 2 1/2 lengths, then improved to a 92 when leading gate-to-wire in the six-furlong Bara Lass S. for Texas-breds at Sam Houston.

Under jockey Edgar Morales (a 22% winner teaming up with trainer Tom Amoss), Modo can use her abundant early speed to record a third straight win.

Santa Anita, Race 5: $218,964 Pick 6 carryover (6:05 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved for two days in a row, the $2 Pick 6 at Santa Anita boasts a $218,964 carryover for Sunday’s card.

The best chance for a single is arguably #8 Brilliantly (6-5) in Race 10, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf. The stoutly bred daughter of Uncle Mo ran well in her debut sprinting six furlongs on dirt at Santa Anita, carving out a fast pace before staying on for second place with a strong 90 Brisnet Speed rating.

Switching to turf and stretching out over one mile shouldn’t bother Brilliantly. She looks ready to deliver victory under hot jockey Juan Hernandez, a 38% winner teaming up with trainer Bob Baffert over the last two months.

Good luck!