The best win bet and a longshot bet in the Beholder Mile

When eight fillies and mares line up to contest Saturday’s Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita, you can bet most handicappers will focus their attention on #1 Swiss Skydiver (8-5).

It’s easy to understand why. Swiss Skydiver was a sensation in 2020, with a victory against males in the Preakness (G1) the greatest of her five graded stakes triumphs. The daughter of Daredevil ran consistently against tough competition all year long, with her only poor effort coming when a stumble at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) left her with a hoof injury.

But is Swiss Skydiver the best filly to bet in the Beholder Mile? Not necessarily.

A flat mile is shorter than she prefers to run, and trainer Kenny McPeek wins at just a 9% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. The Beholder Mile is a starting point for Swiss Skydiver, and there is no guarantee she will fire her best shot this early in the season.

If you’re keen to bet against Swiss Skydiver and seek a bigger payoff, these two alternative plays are worth considering.

Best win bet: #3 Harvest Moon (5-2)

Harvest Moon was a standout three-year-old on the Southern California circuit last season, and most notably defeated Grade 1 winners Hard Not to Love and Fighting Mad in the Zenyatta (G2) at Santa Anita.

But Harvest Moon’s best effort came in defeat. Disregarded at 16-1 for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) at Keeneland, Harvest Moon carved out testing fractions of :23.11, :46.03, and 1:09.94, before she weakened slightly to finish fourth, beaten just 2 1/2 lengths by two-time champion Monomoy Girl.

This effort produced a 105 Brisnet Speed rating, not far off Swiss Skydiver’s career-best 109. Harvest Moon has trained strongly for her return and retains the services of hot jockey Flavien Prat, which sets the stage for a competitive effort.

Best longshot bet: #8 Clockstrikestwelve (20-1)

Clockstrikestwelve has never faced this caliber of competition, but she is unbeaten in five starts since she was claimed by trainer Jonathan Wong.

Her winning instinct is a positive, and her stretch-running style should fit well in this speed-laden race. One can do worse than include a 20-1 win machine on the bottom of trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Good luck!