Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 12-1 shot can win on debut

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Dec. 26 at Santa Anita and Turfway Park, including longshots to play in Turfway’s $5,901 Super High 5 carryover.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Santa Anita: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Madaket Road (3-5) debuted against graded stakes company in the Bob Hope (G3), finishing second by 4 3/4 lengths against the promising Bullard while pulling 2 3/4 lengths clear of the multiple Grade 1-placed McKinzie Street.

Dropping into the maiden ranks for his second start should make Madaket Road tough to beat for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Let’s bet Madaket Road over his unraced stablemate #7 San Saba (2-1) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Madaket Road (3-5)
• #7 San Saba (2-1)
• #3 Father Ted (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 1 with 7

Turfway Park: Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Risky Wave (5-1) has run reasonably well in a couple of tough maiden special weights on the Kentucky circuit. She debuted with a fifth-place finish sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Keeneland turf, then finished sixth in a one-mile dirt contest at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Rusty Arnold wins at a 23% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming competition, so if Risky Wave improves at all while trying Tapeta, she can deliver victory at a nice price. Let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #3 Risky Wave (5-1)
• #7 Frances Stanley (7-2)
• #9 Western Woman (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Risky Wave

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Paulo Lobo has compiled a stellar 9-for-23 (39%) record saddling first-time starters in sprints at Turfway Park. This stat alone is reason enough to support Lobo’s unraced filly #2 Insta Kiss (12-1) in this maiden dash for juveniles.

Insta Kiss has put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for her debut, capped off by a quick five furlongs from the starting gate in :48 4/5. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Insta Kiss (12-1)
• #8 Maclean’s Lullaby (8-1)
• #6 Bridgeport (10-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #2 Insta Kiss

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 9: $5,901 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

Racing resumes at Turfway Park on Thursday with a $5,901 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

Want to win a share? You’ll have to decipher Race 9, a $15,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The 6 1/2-furlong Tapeta sprint has drawn an overflow field of 14 (including two also-eligible entrants), so it’s a tough race to handicap.

You can usually count on a double-digit longshot (or two, or three) to crack the top five in Super High 5 races at Turfway Park. With this in mind, here are three double-digit longshots to include on your tickets:

#8 Ms Ks Dynasty (15-1): Granted, Ms Ks Dynasty’s form has slipped in recent starts, and she exits two defeats by double-digit margins in $20,000 claimers on dirt and turf at Hawthorne. But guess what? Ms Ks Dynasty dominated her lone start at Turfway Park last year, surging from far back to win a one-mile $7,500 maiden claimer by 3 3/4 lengths. There’s a chance Tapeta is the surface this three-year-old filly prefers, so returning to Turfway (and dropping into a $15,000 claimer) may help Ms Ks Dynasty rebound at enticing odds.

#9 Till (15-1): Although Till hasn’t cracked the trifecta in two starts at Turfway Park, one was her debut in a maiden special weight. Her other Turfway try came earlier this month in a five-furlong $15,000 claimer; she rallied from far back to finish fourth, beaten only three lengths. Surely Till has a chance to crack the top five again while sticking to the same class level? Stretching out over 6 1/2 furlongs should only help her chances.

#10 Last Legacy (30-1): Last Legacy hasn’t shown much in two starts on dirt, including when finishing eighth in a $15,000 claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. But her turf form is decent—she broke her maiden in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Belterra Park, and two starts back, she set much of the pace in a one-mile $20,000 claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis before weakening to finish fifth. Sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs should suit Last Legacy from a distance standpoint, and she has upside for improvement while trying Tapeta for the first time.

Good luck!

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