Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $12,390 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 20 at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, and Turf Paradise, including a single for the $12,390 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Fair Grounds: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds each Thursday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Delta Downs Feeder to 2/23 Rebel KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 12:50 p.m. ET)

Unraced #4 Asbury (5-2) is a son of Munnings (who sires a solid 15% winners from first-time starters) out of the Seeking the Gold mare African Jade, who has foaled five winners from five starters.

Asbury’s pedigree suggests he can challenge for victory on debut. It helps that he’s put together a lengthy work tab and is trained by Christophe Clement, a 17% winner with horses debuting in maiden claimers.

Let’s bet Asbury over #2 Isaac Leo (9-5) and #6 Grand Jefe (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Asbury (5-2)
• #2 Isaac Leo (9-5)
• #6 Grand Jefe (2-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 4 with 2,6 ($20)

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

After failing to challenge in her first two starts against maiden special weight company, #5 Casilda (2-1) tackled a $50,000 maiden optional claimer and nearly visited the winner’s circle. The bay filly pressed the pace on her way to second place by three-quarters of a length.

That effort yielded a 76 Brisnet Speed rating only three points lower than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions. Casilda’s second start over this track, distance, and class level can yield victory for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Marcelino Pedroza Jr. and Brad Cox.

A win bet is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #5 Casilda (2-1)
• #1 Royal Princess (7-2)
• #3 Don’t Come Looking (9-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Casilda

Turf Paradise: Race 7: Princess of Palms S. (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:59 p.m. ET)

#8 Welcometohollywood (4-1) has run twice over the Turf Paradise grass course. First, she rallied to trounce a $50,000 allowance optional claimer against fellow fillies by 4 1/4 lengths. Then she faced males in another $50,000 allowance optional claimer and dueled for the lead before fading to finish fourth.

Returning to the filly ranks for the Princess of Palms should place Welcometohollywood in the hunt for victory under hot jockey Orlando Mojica, a 20% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. Let’s bet Welcometohollywood to win and key her over #9 Two Bar (5-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #8 Welcometohollywood (4-1)
• #9 Two Bar (5-2)
• #5 Sayucan (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Welcometohollywood
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 9
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $12,390 Pick 6 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved on Sunday and Monday, the $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds features a double carryover worth $12,390 for Thursday’s card.

Winning a share won’t be easy. Before scratches, the Pick 6 contains 60 horses (averaging 10 per race) and 884,520 possible outcomes.

Fortunately, one simple step can reduce the number of possibilities to consider from 884,520 down to 98,280. That one step is singling morning-line favorite #6 Hope Mission (9-5) in Race 8, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt.

Hope Mission has made two starts running long over this track and class level. In her Dec. 28 debut racing one mile and 70 yards, she tracked the pace, advanced to challenge, and then flattened out late to finish second by one length while pulling 5 3/4 lengths clear of the rest. She was rewarded with a 93 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 8.

Hope Mission’s second start came on Jan. 25. Racing 1 1/16 miles, she pressed the pace, took over the lead, and then weakened to finish second by 4 1/2 lengths while pulling 3 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. This time, she earned a 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

Only one of Hope Mission’s Race 8 rivals has ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 79. That one is #4 Martingale (9-2), who posted a 90 when finishing third in a one-mile maiden special weight at Monmouth Park last June. In two starts since then—including one at Fair Grounds—Martingale has regressed with Brisnet Speed ratings of 76 and 72.

Since Hope Mission holds a Brisnet Speed rating advantage over Thursday’s field, we’re confident her third start will yield a victory. The fact she’s removing blinkers (a 23% winning move for trainer Brendan Walsh) adds to the appeal, as does the fact she’ll be ridden by Declan Cannon, a 28% winner teaming up with Walsh over the last two months.

For all these reasons, we recommend singling Hope Mission in the Pick 6.

Good luck!