Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $31,049 Pick 5 at Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including an analysis of the $31,049 Pick 5 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Fair Grounds: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds each Thursday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Fair Grounds Feeder to 2/22 Rebel KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 2/15 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $7,500 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#2 Classic Moment (3-1) recently returned from a layoff to wire a $20,000 claimer at Fair Grounds by 7 3/4 lengths, earning a strong 86 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s the fourth number in the 84-96 range that Classic Moment has posted from his last five starts.

None of Classic Moment’s Thursday rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 83 in their last three starts apiece, so a typical performance from Classic Moment should be sufficient to visit the winner’s circle.

Let’s bet Classic Moment to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #2 Classic Moment (3-1)
• #4 Crime Spree (9-2)
• #6 Julia’s Warrior (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Classic Moment
• $10 Double: 2 with 6
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:15 p.m. ET)

Hot trainer Larry Rivelli has gone 7-for-24 (29%) at Fair Grounds this meet, which includes a 2-for-3 (67%) tally with first-time starters.

That’s why we’re backing Rivelli’s unraced three-year-old #6 Regained Power (7-2). A son of six-time leading North American sire Into Mischief, Regained Power enters off sharp workouts and has potential to shine on debut whether this race stays on grass or gets rained off the turf.

A win bet is in order, and we’ll single Regained Power to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #6 Regained Power (7-2)
• #2 Sinatra (8-1)
• #4 Restore (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Regained Power

Turfway Park: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#3 Midnight Muse (12-1) debuted with a rallying fourth-place finish in a 6 1/2-furlong $50,000 maiden claimer at Turfway Park.

This maiden special weight is a tougher spot, no doubt, but perhaps Midnight Muse will improve while stretching out in distance for her second start. The daughter of Laoban is a half-sister to one-mile Jack Greer Memorial S. winner Hightailing, 1 1/8-mile All Along S. winner In a Hurry, and 1 1/16-mile Sir Barton S. third-place finisher Romp.

Let’s try a modest win bet on Midnight Muse

Selections

• #3 Midnight Muse (12-1)
• #9 Beach Wedding (3-1)
• #4 Golden Sunshine (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #3 Midnight Muse

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $31,049 Pick 5 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

The highlight of Thursday’s card at Fair Grounds is a $31,049 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

While planning your bets, keep an eye on the weather. Rain may force Thursday’s grass races to be run on the main track, which could trigger a bevy of scratches and allow main-track-only entrants to participate.

We’ve already analyzed the first two legs of the sequence. In Race 5, #2 Classic Moment (3-1) is a Brisnet Speed rating standout. His credentials are strong enough to warrant singling him in the Pick 5.

In Race 6, our top choice is the first-time starter #6 Regained Power (7-2). But if you’d rather not have your Pick 5 ticket rely entirely on an unraced horse, a few experienced runners are worth considering as well.  #2 Sinatra (8-1) finished eighth in his debut last fall behind future Lecomte (G3) winner Disco Time; he’s since been gelded and is adding Lasix for his second start. #4 Restore (3-1) has hit the board in a trio of maiden special weights on turf, and main-track-only entrant #13 Chases Magic (6-1) is fast enough to factor on his best day.

This brings us to Race 7, an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for older horses sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #4 Hoist the Gold (6-5) is a viable single in his first start since June. The 2023 Cigar Mile H. (G2) winner has placed multiple times at the Grade 1 level and enters off a bevy of five-furlong workouts, so fitness shouldn’t be a concern.

Race 8 is tough to analyze because it’s a maiden special weight for three-year-olds racing about 1 1/16 miles on turf, but it could certainly be transferred to 1 1/16 miles on dirt instead. We’ll have to wait for race-day changes to identify the key contenders.

The Pick 5 wraps up with Race 9, a $5,000 claimer for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #1 Lake Marie (4-1) has been competing in $20,000 allowance optional claimers and should be competitive while dropping in class. But #8 Two Jet (7-2) is also tackling easier company, and she has the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge on her best day. Use them both, and consider others if you have the budget.

Good luck!