Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $21,551 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 17 at Gulfstream Park, Keeneland, and Charles Town, along with a horse to single in Aqueduct’s $21,551 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.
• Keeneland 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers on any day at Keeneland from April 16 through April 18 to receive a 25% boost (up to a daily maximum of $25) on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 4/19 Keeneland KDBC Qualifier
• $160 Charles Town Feeder to 4/26 Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 1:22 p.m. ET)

#2 Mythical (8-5) has put together an impressive work tab highlighted by a quartet of bullet workouts. She’s a logical choice to win her first start for trainer Jorge Delgado, a 21% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Let’s try betting Mythical on top of an exacta using #3 Rumpus in Paradise (7-2) and #9 Drama (6-1) for second place. The latter two are conditions by trainers who win at respectable percentages with first-time starters.

Selections

• #2 Mythical (8-5)
• #3 Rumpus in Paradise (7-2)
• #9 Drama (6-1)

Wagers

• $18 Exacta: 2 with 3
• $12 Exacta: 2 with 9
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#7 Atarah (7-2) is an intriguing threat to win her turf debut. She’s finished second and third in her first two starts sprinting six furlongs on dirt, but as a daughter of Bolt d’Oro—who has proven surprisingly effective as a sire of turf horses—there’s a chance Atarah will thrive while trying grass.

It helps that trainer William Walden wins at a 24% rate with horses running long for the first time. Throw in the fact Atarah is picking up hot jockey Flavien Prat (a powerful 31% winner on turf this year), and Atarah is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #7 Atarah (7-2)
• #8 Rather Distinct (5-1)
• #4 Double Jeopardy (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Atarah

Charles Town: Race 4: Allowance (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 8:25 p.m. ET)

In this allowance for West Virginia-breds who have never won three races, #7 Bail Is Denied (4-1) is an intriguing contender. He’s placed in a couple of stakes at Charles Town and won over this class level on Nov. 7.

Bail Is Denied has been sprinting 6 1/2 to seven furlongs as of late, and cutting back to 4 1/2 furlongs is a question mark. But his proven class may prove sufficient to overcome the odds and upset heavy morning-line favorite #4 King Kontie (3-5), who ran second by a neck over this track, distance, and class level last month.

An exacta is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #7 Bail Is Denied (4-1)
• #4 King Kontie (3-5)
• #2 Harley Sioux (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 4

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 4: $21,551 Pick 6 carryover (2:16 p.m. ET)

The highlight of the Thursday card at Aqueduct is a $21,551 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The Pick 6 spans Race 3 through Race 8, a sequence encompassing 47 horses (averaging about 7.8 per race). Thanks to a pair of coupled entries, there are only 188,160 possible betting outcomes in the Pick 6, so the sequence doesn’t look impossible to solve by any means.

Even better, we can reduce the number of outcomes to consider down to a mere 18,816 just by singling morning-line favorite #6 King of the Castle (4-5) in Race 8, a $30,000 maiden claimer for New York-breds racing one mile on dirt. A 10-horse field has entered, but King of the Castle looks like a standout.

King of the Castle showed little in his first two starts on synthetic and turf at Gulfstream Park, but those were non-state-restricted maiden special weights. When he switched to dirt and dropped into the New York-bred ranks for a $30,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct last month, he fared much better. After sticking close to the early pace, King of the Castle closed ground down the homestretch of the 6 1/2-furlong sprint to finish second by a neck.

King of the Castle pulled 10 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned an 83 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Thursday’s field. He was claimed out of that race by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, who wins at a spectacular 41% rate with new claiming acquisitions.

King of the Castle has several other positive stats in his favor as well. For starters, Cox wins at a 31% rate with horses making the sprint-to-route transition. For another, Cox has won with 31% of his starters at Aqueduct since November. Thirdly, King of the Castle is picking up jockey Manny Franco, easily the winningest rider at Aqueduct since November. And lastly, Cox and Franco have teamed up to win at a 42% rate together over the last two months.

For all these reasons, King of the Castle is a compelling choice to win the Aqueduct finale, and we’re confident he’ll deliver victory as a Pick 6 single.

Good luck!