Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Bet this 10-1 shot at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 6 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a horse to single in the $1,055 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Fair Grounds: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds each Thursday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Fair Grounds Feeder to 2/15 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 2/8 Sam F. Davis/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:45 p.m. ET)

Trainer Justin Jeansonne wins at a 21% rate with first-time starters and a 27% rate with horses debuting on turf. These stats bode well for Jeansonne’s unraced three-year-old filly #5 Ostrica (6-1).

A daughter of talented sprinter Street Boss (who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters), Ostrica has posted half a dozen workouts since mid-December, including half a mile from the Fair Grounds starting gate in :49 4/5. Under jockey Jareth Loveberry (a 36% winner teaming up with Jeansonne over the last two months), Ostrica is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #5 Ostrica (6-1)
• #3 Tensas Bolt (4-1)
• #7 Thundering Desire (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Ostrica

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Paulo Lobo has gone 10-for-26 (38%) saddling first-time starters in sprints at Turfway Park.

This lofty success rate is reason enough to back Lobo’s unraced three-year-old filly #10 Perfect Snow (10-1) in her debut. The daughter of top-tier sprinter Caravaggio has put together a lengthy work tab and can surely outrun her double-digit morning-line odds.

We’ll keep our strategy simple with a win bet.

Selections

• #10 Perfect Snow (10-1)
• #9 Anejo Decision (3-1)
• #7 Don’t Call Me Babe (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Perfect Snow

Turfway Park: Race 7: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#2 Candy Boy (2-1) ran well when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong $30,000 maiden claimer at Turfway Park. After settling in midfield, he advanced to finish third out of 10 starters.

Candy Boy was claimed out of that race by high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli, a 31% winner at Turfway this meet. Rivelli strikes at a 31% rate with horses running for the first time following a claim, and the addition of blinkers and Lasix opens the door for Candy Boy to improve in his second start.

Throw in the fact Candy Boy is dropping down to the $15,000 level, and this three-year-old gelding looks tough to beat. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Candy Boy (2-1)
• #5 Cold Front (10-1)
• #8 Bigonzetti (6-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #2 Candy Boy

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $1,055 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

Racing resumes at Fair Grounds on Thursday with a $1,055 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

The Pick 6 looks medium-level difficult to hit. The sequence contains 56 horses (averaging about 9.3 per race) and 582,400 possible outcomes before scratches, but once you remove five also-eligible entrants from consideration, those numbers drop to 51 horses (averaging 8.5 per race) and 362,880 possible outcomes.

Bettors can simplify the complexity of the sequence even further by singling #3 Pretty Prairie (6-5) in Race 7, a maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Pretty Prairie is a clear-cut standout from a Brisnet Speed rating standpoint. She earned an 85 when debuting in a non-state-restricted 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Evangeline Downs, a race in which she crossed the wire first by 3 3/4 lengths before getting disqualified to third place.

Pretty Prairie disappointed in her next two starts before taking time off. She returned to action in November and ran much better in a pair of six-furlong maiden special weights for Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds. She finished second in both while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 78 and 76.

None of Pretty Prairie’s Thursday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 70, so a typical performance from Pretty Prairie should be more than sufficient to take home top honors. The fact trainer Samuel Breaux wins at a 28% rate with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start (an angle that applies to Pretty Prairie) adds to the appeal.

Assuming all the also-eligible entrants in the Pick 6 scratch as expected, singling Pretty Prairie in Race 7 reduces the number of possible Pick 6 outcomes to consider all the way down to 45,360. From there, assembling a competitive ticket on a reasonable budget should be manageable.

Good luck!