Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers at Aqueduct, Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Feb. 27 at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in carryovers at Aqueduct and Turfway.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Fair Grounds: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds each Thursday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/8 Tampa Bay Derby KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 3/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 12:50 p.m. ET)

Unraced three-year-old filly #5 Downtown Ro (5-1) may start at a decent price since trainer Brian Lynch wins at a modest 10% rate with first-time starters. But take note, Lynch’s strike rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers is a much loftier 31%.

Downtown Ro is a daughter of Mo Town (who sires a respectable 13% winners from first-time starters) out of Runfor Ro, who has foaled five winners from five starters. A lengthy work tab should have Downtown Ro fit for a competitive debut, so let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #5 Downtown Ro (5-1)
• #8 Lady Meghan (5-2)
• #3 Wellness (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Downtown Ro

Turfway Park: Race 5: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#10 She’s Fancy (5-2) tired after setting the pace in the one-mile Likely Exchange S. at Turfway last time out, finishing eighth by 6 1/2 lengths. But two starts back, she won a six-furlong maiden special weight with a flashy 88 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping back down in class and distance should allow She’s Fancy to rebound for jockey Sophie Doyle and trainer Christopher Davis, who have gone 3-for-8 (38%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Let’s bet She’s Fancy to win and play her over #4 Uno Le (7-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #10 She’s Fancy (5-2)
• #4 Uno Le (7-2)
• #7 Storm Bay (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 She’s Fancy
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 4
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 9:55 p.m. ET)

After finishing sixth, fourth, and eighth in her first three starts against maiden special weight competition on turf and dirt, #3 Minnesota Munny (15-1) is switching to Tapeta and adding Lasix for her three-year-old debut. These changes open the door for an improved performance at enticing odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Minnesota Munny (15-1)
• #9 Painted Desert (5-2)
• #1 Boujee Beach (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Minnesota Munny

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $20,329 Pick 6 carryover (2:08 p.m. ET)

Thursday’s $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct features a non-jackpot $20,329 carryover.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? We recommend using #2 Dolomite (6-5) in Race 7, a $45,000 allowance optional claimer for New York-bred fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt.

Dolomite ran strongly when returning from a lengthy layoff over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 17. After settling in sixth place, she rallied steadily to finish second by a neck, earning a sharp 90 Brisnet Speed rating.

In the past, Dolomite has run well against stakes competition. She finished third against non-state-restricted foes in the 2023 Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct and second against New York-breds in the Fleet Indian S. at Saratoga, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 88 and 91.

If Dolomite moves forward at all in her second start back from the layoff (which is a 28% winning move for trainer Chad Brown), she can deliver a comfortable victory under hot jockey Manny Franco.

Turfway Park: Race 10: $5,879 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

The final race on Thursday at Turfway Park features a non-jackpot $5,879 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The evening finale is Race 10, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. The 6 1/2-furlong Tapeta sprint has drawn an overflow field of 14 (including two also-eligible entrants), so there are plenty of viable contenders to sort through.

We’re keen to support #2 Shear (8-1) at a bit of a price. The five-year-old mare was last seen during the spring and summer of 2024 at Belterra Park, where she recorded a quartet of top-five finishes in allowances and a $15,000 claimer on dirt and turf.

Those were decent efforts, but Shear appears to be better racing on Tapeta. She’s cracked the trifecta in five of her eight starts on Tapeta at Turfway Park. Almost exactly one year ago, Shear won a one-mile $15,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, earning a 76 Brisnet Speed rating four points higher than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

Returning to Turfway for a $5,000 claimer might be all Shear needs to vie for victory. It helps that trainer Richard Estvanko wins at a 21% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. We recommend supporting Shear heavily in the Super High 5, counting on her to finish either first or second.

Good luck!