Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers at Turfway, Turf Paradise

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 23 at Turf Paradise and Santa Anita, along with analysis of carryovers at Turf Paradise and Turfway Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fair Grounds 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Fair Grounds each Thursday in January.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Oaklawn Feeder to 1/26 Fair Grounds/Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 2/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 2: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:53 p.m. ET)

#7 Prisoner (5-2) has been in hot form for high-percentage trainer Justin Evans, a 27% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. Prisoner has wired back-to-back $25,000-$20,000 and $35,000 allowance optional claimers at Turf Paradise, taking the latter contest by 1 1/4 lengths over a next-out winner.

Under jockey Glenn Corbett (a 40% winner teaming up with Evans over the last two months), Prisoner is a logical threat to record a third straight victory. Let’s bet him to win and key him over #2 Plane Talk (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Prisoner (5-2)
• #2 Plane Talk (2-1)
• #4 Laws of Man (10-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #7 Prisoner
• $7 Exacta: 7 with 2
  Total: $25

Santa Anita: Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 6:03 p.m. ET)

#2 Tapatia Leah (4-1) didn’t show much when finishing ninth in her debut, but that was a maiden special weight taking place over six furlongs on turf. Switching surfaces and dropping down in class opens the door for improvement, especially since hot trainer Steven Miyadi wins at a 22% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weigh to maiden claiming company.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Tapatia Leah (4-1)
• #8 Spotted Haze (4-5)
• #4 Lucky Sermon (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Tapatia Leah

Santa Anita: Race 7: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (about 6 1/2 furlongs on turf, 6:33 p.m. ET)

#2 Queen Maxima (7-5) hasn’t missed the exacta in four starts sprinting on turf. Last time out, she charged hard to win a six-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita by half a length.

Queen Maxima has also placed against stakes company sprinting about 6 1/2 furlongs down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, finishing second in the Unzip Me S. against Toupie, who won the Las Cienegas (G3) at Santa Anita last week.

Queen Maxima looks tough to beat on Thursday, so we’ll play accordingly with a win bet and an exacta using #5 Normandy Queen (3-1) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Queen Maxima (7-5)
• #5 Normandy Queen (3-1)
• #7 Egyptian Mau (8-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #2 Queen Maxima
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 5
  Total: $50

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $36,162 Pick 5 carryover (3:50 p.m. ET)

No one solved the 50-cent Pick 5 at Turf Paradise on Wednesday, triggering an impressive $36,162 carryover into Thursday’s card.

The opening leg of the Pick 5 is Race 4, an $8,500 maiden claimer for older horses sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. #2 Racer Rex (2-1) and #10 Vinniebob (4-1) are logical favorites, but bettors shouldn’t leave the double-digit longshots #5 Brainiac (12-1) and #6 Sunset Storm (15-1) off their tickets.

Brainiac has started twice in $20,000 maiden claimers at Santa Anita, finishing seventh in both. Sunset Storm likewise exits $20,000 maiden claimers on the Southern California circuit, having finished fifth at Del Mar and ninth at Los Alamitos in his last two starts.

Descending in class and shipping to an easier circuit may help Brainiac and Sunset Storm challenge for victory. Brainiac in particular warrants respect since trainer Ryan Kenney wins at a 38% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Turfway Park: Race 10: $2,187 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

Winter weather has affected the Turfway Park racing schedule in recent weeks, but Thursday’s card is expected to go on with a $2,187 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 10, a $7,500 claimer for older horses who have never won two races. One of the main contenders in this 6 1/2-furlong Tapeta dash is #3 On Palm Sunday (7-2), who made his Turfway debut with a runner-up finish sprinting six furlongs over this class level on Jan. 2. On Palm Sunday was beaten only a neck while earning a sharp 78 Brisnet Speed rating equal to the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

#11 Panthor (5-2) is worth a long look too. He made his Turfway debut in a $15,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs, and after dueling for the lead he fought on gamely to prevail by a neck, earning a 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

And don’t forget about #7 Shiesty to Chase (3-1), who has finished third and sixth in his last two starts against $15,000 claiming competition running long at Turfway. Dropping down in class and distance under hot apprentice jockey Irving Moncada (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) may place Shiesty to Chase in the hunt for victory.

We recommend building Super High 5 tickets around these three favorites:

• $1 Super High 5: 3,11 with 3,7,11 with 3,7,11 with 9,10,12 with 1,9,10,12 ($36)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,11 with 3,7,11 with 9,10,12 with 3,7,11 with 1,9,10,12 ($36)
  Total: $72

Good luck!