Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Cox double at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, March 27 at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, along with analysis of Pick 5 and Super High 5 carryovers at Sunland Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Mahoning Valley Feeder to 4/5 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier
• $250 Turfway Feeder to 3/29 Arkansas Derby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 5: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:58 p.m. ET)

#2 Sorcerer’s Silver (3-5) was tons the best in a seven-furlong maiden special weight for Florida-breds at Gulfstream last month, wiring the field by 8 1/4 lengths with a 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Sorcerer’s Silver’s rivals in this allowance optional claimer for Florida-breds have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 83, so the favorite should be tough to beat in his second start. #4 Lawler (10-1), exiting a 5 3/4-length win in a non-state-restricted $25,000 maiden claimer at Gulfstream, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Sorcerer’s Silver (3-5)
• #4 Lawler (10-1)
• #5 Mr Tyson (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 4

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Suited and Booted (3-1) ran well when debuting in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway last month. After a slow beginning, he rallied to finish second with a respectable 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

Now Suited and Booted is tackling a maiden special weight for three-year-olds who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction. Hot trainer Brad Cox wins at a spectacular 57% rate with horses jumping up from maiden claiming to maiden special weight company, so let’s bet Suited and Booted to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Suited and Booted (3-1)
• #11 Brotha Keny (7-2)
• #5 Bazarro (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Suited and Booted
• $5 Double: 1 with 7
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#7 Army Officer (5-2) broke his maiden in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Turfway Tapeta last year. He later won an $80,000 allowance optional claimer on grass at Saratoga before finishing off the board in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (G2) and Gun Runner S. on turf.

Dropping in class and returning to Tapeta should allow Army Officer to win his first start as a gelding for trainer Brad Cox, who strikes at a 29% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. We’ll bet Army Office to win and single him to conclude our double bet.

Selections

• #7 Army Officer (5-2)
• #4 First Strike (4-1)
• #6 Quadra Island (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Army Officer

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park: Race 5: $189 Pick 5 carryover (4:05 p.m. ET)
Sunland Park: Race 9: $224 Super High 5 carryover (5:49 p.m. ET)

There are two small non-jackpot carryovers available to chase during Thursday’s card at Sunland Park.

The 50-cent Pick 5 has gone unsolved for two days in a row, leading to a double carryover worth $189. The 50-cent Super High 5 has likewise proven unwinnable for the last two racing days, triggering a $224 carryover.

The Pick 5 gets underway in Race 5, an allowance for three-year-olds and older horses who have never won two races. The 6 1/2-furlong dirt dash has drawn only six horses, so it shouldn’t prove too difficult to handicap.

In fact, we’ll take a stand and recommend morning-line favorite #5 Onefortheditch (9-5) as a Pick 5 single. Since breaking his maiden over this track and distance by 2 1/2 lengths with a 78 Brisnet Speed rating, Onefortheditch has finished second in back-to-back allowances for non-winners of two races. Those efforts earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 78.

Onefortheditch has already beaten three of the five rivals he’ll face on Thursday, and his 86 Brisnet Speed rating is the highest in this field. He appears to have found the perfect spot to snatch his second win for the hot jockey/trainer team of Miguel Perez and Greg Green.

The Pick 5 concludes in Race 9, which is also the race in which the Super High 5 carryover is up for grabs. Race 9 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and it’s a tough race to handicap because none of the entrants bring particularly inspiring form to the table.

Ultimately, #9 Ladypacksapistol (4-1) is our top choice. True, she was beaten by a double-digit margin when debuting with a fourth-place finish over this track, distance, and class level on Feb. 21. But Ladypacksapistol broke slowly that day, and even in defeat she earned a 59 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up reasonably well against Thursday’s field.

Ladypacksapistol is conditioned by hot trainer Joel Marr, who wins at a powerful 28% rate with second-time starters. Ladypacksapistol is eligible to improve in her second race, and if she does, she can deliver victory over #4 Toni the Grrreat (5-1), #6 Stubby (5-2), and #7 Brazilian Queen (7-2).

Pick 5 bettors might want to use all four of the fillies and mares we’ve mentioned, just to be on the safe side. Meanwhile, Super High 5 bettors should consider keying Ladypacksapistol to finish first or second while emphasizing Toni the Grrreat, Stubby, and Brazilian Queen across the remaining slots. For example:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 9 with 4,6,7 with 4,6,7 with 4,6,7 with 2,5,8 ($9)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 4,6,7 with 9 with 4,6,7 with 4,6,7 with 2,5,8 ($9)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 9 with 4,6,7 with 4,6,7 with 2,5,8 with 4,6,7 ($9)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 4,6,7 with 9 with 4,6,7 with 2,5,8 with 4,6,7 ($9)
  Total: $36

Good luck!