Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Five-figure Keeneland carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 10 at Keeneland, including a 5-1 shot to emphasize in lucrative Pick 6 and Super High 5 carryovers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.
• Keeneland 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers on any day at Keeneland from April 9 through April 11 to receive a 25% boost (up to a daily maximum of $25) on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $400 Keeneland Bonus Feeder to 4/11 Keeneland KDBC/G1G Qualifier
• $160 Charles Town Feeder to 4/19 Keeneland KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#3 Ashkenazi (4-5) looks ready to win on debut for trainer Wesley Ward. A two-year-old daughter of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Hootenanny (who sires an excellent 21% winners from first-time starters), Ashkenazi exits a bullet three-furlong workout in :34 2/5 at Keeneland.

During the 2024 spring meet at Keeneland, Ward debuted 11 unraced juveniles, and seven (64%) visited the winner’s circle. That impressive win percentage cements Ashkenazi as the filly to beat on Thursday.

Let’s single Ashkenazi to start a double wager.

Selections

• #3 Ashkenazi (4-5)
• #5 Baytown Anubis (12-1)
• #7 Double Talker (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Double: 3 with 8

Keeneland: Race 2: $30,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#8 Baytown Bruiser (5-1) hasn’t raced since last May, when he finished third and fifth in a pair of $50,000 starter allowances at Churchill Downs. Those efforts earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 80, which stack up well against Thursday’s field.

Trainer Glenn Wismer wins at a 33% rate with first-time claimers, so the stage is set for Baytown Bruiser to vie for victory in his comeback. We’ll single him to conclude our double bet, then play him to win for good measure. 

Selections

• #8 Baytown Bruiser (5-1)
• #6 Jimmy the Hat (8-1)
• #9 No No Joe (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #8 Baytown Bruiser

Keeneland: Race 7: Allowance (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:12 p.m. ET)

Three fillies look like the key contenders in this two-turn allowance.

#5 Sudden Switch (5-2) exits a decisive three-length debut win in a one-mile and 40-yard maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs. #6 Into Amore (3-1) has placed second twice in allowance optional claimers on the Florida circuit. #7 Crazy Cami (5-1) has cracked the trifecta in three straight allowances at Oaklawn Park.

Let’s play a trifecta using Sudden Switch and Into Amore on top and Crazy Cami underneath:

Selections

• #5 Sudden Switch (5-2)
• #6 Into Amore (3-1)
• #7 Crazy Cami (5-1)

Wagers

• $5 Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6,7 with 5,6,7 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 4: $45,904 Pick 6 carryover (2:36 p.m. ET)
Keeneland: Race 9: $88,162 Super High 5 carryover (5:16 p.m. ET)

After a 46-1 longshot won Wednesday’s final race at Keeneland, there are two non-jackpot carryovers for bettors to chase on Thursday.

The prize pool for the $1 Pick 6 stands at $45,904, while the $1 Super High 5—which hasn’t been hit yet this meet—boasts an even larger $88,162 carryover.

Super High 5 betting is available on Race 9, the final leg of the Pick 6. Race 9 is a seemingly inscrutable $50,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting seven furlongs on dirt. A huge field has entered (12 horses in the main body of the field plus four on the also-eligible list), and determining which horses have a shot to win—or finish in the top five—isn’t easy.

That said, we believe #5 Cinister Cix (5-1) is a serious win threat. He might not be single-worthy for Pick 6 bettors, but Super High 5 bettors should consider keying him on top (or at least to finish first or second) in order to make tickets affordable.

Cinister Cix debuted in a maiden special weight sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta at Turfway Park. He chased the pace in second place for half a mile before tiring to finish ninth.

That wasn’t an inspiring debut, but there are reasons to believe Cinister Cix can improve on Thursday. For starters, trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a 30% rate with second-time starters, far exceeding his 12% win rate with first-time starters over the past few years.

For another, Cinister Cix is dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, which is a 24% winning move for Brisset.

Also encouraging is Cinister Cix’s pedigree. He’s a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin out of the Uncle Mo mare Auntjenn, who has previously produced Salvator Mile (G3) winner Petulante and Lafayette S. winner The Donegal Clan, two runners who achieved their signature wins on dirt. These bloodlines suggest Cinister Cix will improve while switching from Tapeta to dirt.

Lastly, Cinister Cix is picking up Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat, a 22% winner to start this Keeneland spring meet. With all these positives in Cinister Cix’s corner, a win bet is also in order:

• $25 to win on #5 Cinister Cix

Good luck!